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Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) president Rajnath Singh Saturday said he has been asked to convince the party's prime ministerial candidate L.K. Advani to remain head of the BJP MPs in parliament.
He said in a meeting of the parliamentary party Saturday, Advani had expressed his "will" not to become the parliamentary party leader, but the party did not agree.
"Another meeting was convened and I was given the task of meeting Advani and convincing him to accept the leadership in parliament," Singh told reporters here.
Expressing his thanks to the people of Ghaziabad residents, he promised he would discharge his duty as MP without any discrimination. "All are equal to me and I would serve them to my full capacity," he said.
The BJP chief said he had telephoned Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and Congress president Sonia Gandhi on his way to Ghaziabad and conveyed his party's full constructive support to strengthen the country.
For Karnataka Chief Minister B.S. Yeddyurappa, D-day turned into an anti-climax as the joy of his party winning 19 of the 28 Lok Sabha seats in the state was dashed by the defeat of the Bharatiya Janata Party-led (BJP) National Democratic Alliance (NDA).
Though the party demonstrated its hold in the state by increasing its tally to 19 seats from 18 in the 2004 elections, the failure of the BJP and its pre-poll allies in posing a modicum of challenge to the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) has reduced the massive victory in the state to mere academic interest.
"Though we have succeeded in retaining the trust of the people across the state, the performance of the NDA at the national level is disappointing. Our national leadership will analyse the factors behind the loss," Yeddyurappa told reporters after the verdict.
Thanking the people of Karnataka for a resounding mandate to the BJP, the chief minister said though the final outcome was not up to the party's expectation it was satisfactory.
"We had expected to win 22 seats but have won 19. By winning one more than in 2004 elections, the party has strengthened its position in this election. We have lost three-four seats by a narrow margin due to internal agreement between the Congress and the JD-S (Janata Dal-Secular)," Yeddyurappa pointed out.
Asked about the victory of his son B.Y. Raghavendra from the high-profile Shimoga, an elated Yeddyurappa said it was a victory of the people and his party's cadres, who toiled to defeat former chief minister and party-hopper S. Bangarappa.
Bangarappa had left the Samajwadi Party (SP) to contest on a Congress ticket for the sixth time.
The 77-year-old Bangarappa, who retained the seat in 2004 elections contesting from the BJP and retained the seat in a bye-election as SP candidate in March 2005, lost to 36-year-old Raghavendra by a margin of 52,893 votes.
Incidentally, Yeddyurappa defeated Bangarappa from the Shikaripura assembly segment of the parliamentary constituency in the May 2008 assembly elections.
"As far as the BJP's defeat at the national level is concerned, we have to bow our head to the people's verdict. We will sit down in Delhi soon to discuss the factors that let us down in north India. The party's victory in the state has put greater responsibility on us to work for the development of Karnataka on 24x7," Yeddyurappa asserted.
Referring to the party's candidates winning all the three seats in Bangalore, the chief minister said it was ample demonstration of the state government's efforts to improve the tech hub's crumbling infrastructure and chaotic traffic since the party came to power a year ago.
Meanwhile, Karnataka Pradesh Congress Committee (KPCC) president R.V. Deshpande accepted responsibility for the poor showing of the party, whose strength in the 15th Lok Sabha declined to six from eight earlier.
"We bow to the verdict of the people in all humility. I take the moral and legal responsibility for not able to win more than six seats in the state. It's collective responsibility. The party's high command will take the decision on how to revive our fortunes," Deshpande told reporters, adding he would not resign from the party's post unless directed by the high command.
Meanwhile, former prime minister and JD-S supremo H.D. Deve Gowda, who won from Hassan for the third time in a row with the highest victory margin in the state (291,113 votes), said he would accept the mandate of the people gracefully.
"I have not been well. I will talk to you people later when I get well. Our party has fared better than last time by winning three seats in the state as against two in the 2004 elections. We have wrested Mandya from the Congress," Deve Gowda said.
When asked about the fate of the Third Front, which he spearheaded to form in March, Deve Gowda said he would discuss with the leaders of the Left parties next week on their next course of action.
The Election Commission's new website, specially created to provide the Lok Sabha election trends and results, developed technical snags in the morning and evening Saturday.
The website's server crashed for over two hours in the evening and poll panel officials said it would be set right soon.
"A technical team of the National Informatics Centre (NIC) is still working to clear the snags that developed in the new website," an Election Commission official said here.
This was the second time the website developed technical snags. It faced problems in the morning due to a huge rush of visitors to the site.
"Since early Saturday a lot of people have been checking the new Election Commission website for the results because of which there has been a congestion. This caused snags in the website," Deputy Election Commissioner Alok Shukla told IANS.
The Election Commission website for the results is www.eciresults.nic.in.
The Election Commission's new website, specially created to provide the Lok Sabha election trends and results, developed technical snags in the morning and evening Saturday.
The website's server crashed for over two hours in the evening and poll panel officials said it would be set right soon.
"A technical team of the National Informatics Centre (NIC) is still working to clear the snags that developed in the new website," an Election Commission official said here.
This was the second time the website developed technical snags. It faced problems in the morning due to a huge rush of visitors to the site.
"Since early Saturday a lot of people have been checking the new Election Commission website for the results because of which there has been a congestion. This caused snags in the website," Deputy Election Commissioner Alok Shukla told IANS.
The Election Commission website for the results is www.eciresults.nic.in.
After its poor showing in the Lok Sabha and Andhra Pradesh assembly polls, Telugu Desam Party (TDP) president N. Chandrababu Naidu Saturday said that his party would analyse the election results.
The TDP-led four-party Grand Alliance suffered defeat in both the assembly and Lok Sabha elections.
The alliance won 108 seats in the 294-member state assembly and bagged eight out of the state's 42 Lok Sabha seats. TDP won 93 assembly and six Lok Sabha seats on its own.
Naidu told reporters that the results were below his expectations and the party would begin district-wise analysis of the results.
"We need to analyse the results in detail because the Congress has won more Lok Sabha seats as compared to assembly seats. The UPA has bagged more seats than its own expectations in several states," he said.
Naidu said the TDP would work as a "responsible opposition party". "We will play the role of an effective opposition to serve the people," he said.
Partywise Standings in Loksabha Elections 2009
Data as on : May 16 2009 9:36PM
| Party | Winners | Leading | Total | Party Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bahujan Samaj Party | 0 | 25 | 25 | National |
| Bharatiya Janata Party | 0 | 100 | 100 | National |
| Communist Party of India | 0 | 3 | 3 | National |
| Communist Party of India (Marxist) | 0 | 17 | 17 | National |
| Indian National Congress | 0 | 185 | 185 | National |
| Nationalist Congress Party | 0 | 11 | 11 | National |
| Rashtriya Janata Dal | 0 | 7 | 7 | National |
| All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam | 0 | 10 | 10 | State |
| All India Forward Bloc | 0 | 1 | 1 | State |
| All India Trinamool Congress | 0 | 10 | 10 | State |
| Asom Gana Parishad | 0 | 1 | 1 | State |
| Assam United Democratic Front | 0 | 2 | 2 | State |
| Biju Janata Dal | 0 | 14 | 14 | State |
| Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam | 0 | 19 | 19 | State |
| Jammu & Kashmir National Conference | 0 | 3 | 3 | State |
| Janata Dal (Secular) | 0 | 3 | 3 | State |
| Janata Dal (United) | 0 | 11 | 11 | State |
| Kerala Congress (M) | 0 | 1 | 1 | State |
| Lok Jan Shakti Party | 0 | 2 | 2 | State |
| Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam | 0 | 1 | 1 | State |
| Muslim League Kerala State Committee | 0 | 2 | 2 | State |
| Nagaland Peoples Front | 0 | 1 | 1 | State |
| Samajwadi Party | 0 | 24 | 24 | State |
| Shiromani Akali Dal | 0 | 4 | 4 | State |
| Shivsena | 0 | 9 | 9 | State |
| Sikkim Democratic Front | 0 | 1 | 1 | State |
| Telangana Rashtra Samithi | 0 | 3 | 3 | State |
| Telugu Desam | 0 | 7 | 7 | State |
| Bodaland Peoples Front | 0 | 1 | 1 | UnRecognized |
| Haryana Janhit Congress (BL) | 0 | 1 | 1 | UnRecognized |
| Jharkhand Vikas Morcha (Prajatantrik) | 0 | 1 | 1 | UnRecognized |
| Mahagujarat Janta Party | 0 | 1 | 1 | UnRecognized |
| Maharashtra Navnirman sena | 0 | 1 | 1 | UnRecognized |
| Peoples Democratic Alliance | 0 | 1 | 1 | UnRecognized |
| Praja Rajyam Party | 0 | 1 | 1 | UnRecognized |
| Rashtriya Lok Dal | 0 | 3 | 3 | UnRecognized |
| Swabhimani Paksha | 0 | 1 | 1 | UnRecognized |
| Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katch | 0 | 2 | 2 | UnRecognized |
| Independent | 0 | 7 | 7 | Independents |
Election Commission has launched a special website www.eciresults.nic.in to make available the Lok Sabha as well as the assembly election outcome instantly.
The Commission has made elaborate arrangements to gather results from 1,080 counting centres across the country for which over 60,000 staff would be deployed.
The counting of votes would be taken up at 8.00 am on Saturday.
The Commission had developed a special software that will ensure the result sheet from each counting hall after every round is sent to the data and the media centres simultaneously.
Both National parties Congress and BJP have conducted their own Exit poll surveys. Lets take a look at the Exit Polls results.
Bharatiya Janta Party Exit Poll Results:
Indian National Congress Exit Poll results:
-- Sanjay Kumar is a leading political commentator and analyst. He is also the Deputy Director of Lokniti and a Fellow at the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS), Delhi.
It is going to be a close finish between the Congress and BJP, with Congress and allies likely to have a tally of 191 and the BJP and allies ending up with a score of 180.
But, in this close race to power, the Congress seems to have marginally taken the lead over the BJP. The Congress is likely to get a tally to 154 seats while the BJP is likely to end up with 141.
NCP to emerge as biggest Cong ally
The allies of Congress and BJP seem to be ending up in a tie. It is expected that the Congress allies together (National Conference, JMM, NCP, DMK, Muslim League and Trinmool Congress) would win 38 seats, with NCP emerging to be the biggest ally of the Congress with 14 seats.
The BJP allies (AGP, JD-U, INLD, Shiv Sena, Akali Dal and RLD) together would win 38 seats and JD-U would emerge as the biggest ally with 18 seats. Besides Cong+ and BJP+, all other parties together are likely to have 172 seats in the next Lok Sabha.
Though Congress is likely to improve its tally marginally compared to its performance in the 2004 Lok Sabha elections, there are likely changes in various states. The Congress is likely to suffer minor losses in states like Andhra Pradesh, Assam, Gujarat, Haryana, Himachal Pradesh and Tamil Nadu. But the party can make up for these losses in Kerala, Orissa, Punjab and Rajasthan. It can also make minor gains in Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra.
BJP to gain in Bihar and Gujarat
Similarly, the BJP is likely to lose a large number of seats in Rajasthan while it can suffer minor losses in Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra. But, BJP is likely to make up for its losses from gains in Bihar, Gujarat and Jharkhand. The BJP is also likely to make marginal gains in UP.
Since no party or alliance would be anywhere close to the majority mark, the post-poll alliance would be vital for the formation of the next government. Who would form the next government is the big question to which everybody would like to get an answer.
State-wise projection | |||
|---|---|---|---|
Andhra Pradesh (42) | Bihar (40) | Gujarat (26) | Maharashtra (48) |
| Cong: 22 (-7) | Cong: 3 | Cong: 8 (-4) | Cong: 15 (+2) |
| TDP+: 14 (+9) | BJP: 8 (+3) | BJP: 18 (+4) | NCP: 14 (+5) |
| TRS: 5 | JD(U): 18 (+13) | BJP+: 19 (-6) | |
| PRP: 1 | LJP+RJD: 9 (-14) | Others: 0 (-1) | |
| Others: 0 (-3) | Others: 2 (+1) | ||
Rajasthan (25) | Tamil Nadu (39) | Uttar Pradesh (80) | West Bengal (42) |
| Cong: 14 (+10) | Cong: 2 (-8) | Cong: 10 (+1) | Cong: 5 |
| BJP: 11 (-10) | DMK: 6 (-10) | BJP: 13 (+3) | TC: 10 |
| AIADMK: 22 (+22) | RLD: 3 | BJP: 1 | |
| PMK: 7 (+2) | BSP: 32 (+13) | Left: 26 | |
| Others: 2 (-6) | SP: 22 (-3) | ||
Frankly, at the moment, one can hardly offer any answer to this question. The formation of the next government depends upon which alliance is likely to win over most of the parties, which are at the moment 'non-aligned'.
Post-elections tie-up
In the post-elections alliance, the Left, BSP, SP, AIADMK, TDP, TRS and BJD are the parties to watch out for. These parties are likely to win sizeable number of seats in their respective states.
The Left is likely win 38 Lok Sabha seats and would suffer major losses compared to its performance in 2004, but they would still be a key player in the formation of the next government in Delhi.
In Tamil Nadu, Jayalalithaa with her allies is likely to win 29 seats and their support would also be crucial for the formation of the next government.
In UP, BSP is certain to emerge as the frontrunner with 32 seats and is also likely to win a couple of other seats outside the state too. With 34 seats in the Lok Sabha, Mayawati would also be one of the king-makers in the formation of the next government.
Split of anti-Congress votes
The SP is likely to win 22 Lok Sabha seats. The TDP, which was expected to gain from the anti-incumbency sentiments in Andhra Pradesh against the Congress government, is not likely to do so well since the anti-Congress votes are getting split between the TDP-TRS combine and the Praja Rajayam. But still TDP-TRS would win 17 Lok Sabha seats and their support would be crucial for the formation of the next government.
The BJD, which broke its alliance from the BJP just before the elections, is likely to win eight seats in Orissa.
Since most of the parties that are not part of any alliance and are likely to win sizeable numbers of seats seem to be more anti-BJP than anti-Congress, it may be easier for the Congress compared to the BJP to bring them to their fold. But the irony is that many of these parties may not be willing to be a part of a Congress-led government due to state-level political compulsions.
The support of the Left to the Congress would mean Mamata going out of the alliance. Similarly, while the Congress would ideally like to get support from both SP and BSP, having both Mulayama and Mayawati in the same government is unimaginable.
So, in order to get the support from one, Congress will have to sacrifice the possible support from the other. The TDP, which had been an ally of the BJP earlier, would prefer to support the BJP rather than the Congress eyeing on Muslim votes in the state. But since the party's major poll plank in Andhra Pradesh had been highlighting the "mis-governance" of the Congress government, it would be difficult for the TDP to extend support to the possible Congress-led UPA government. The support of the AIADMK to Cong+ would mean sacrificing the DMK from the alliance, since Karunanidhi and Jayalalithaa can never be in the same formation at any cost.
If these parties, that are at the moment independent and non-aligned and are likely to win sizeable number of seats, cannot be part of the Congress-led government or support its government, does this mean it would be much easier for BJP+ to form the next government in Delhi even if they seem to be slightly behind Cong+ in terms of number at the moment?
The number basis
It is difficult to make an estimate of which party would get how many seats. And it is even more difficult to say which party would support whom. After all, alliances are made not on the basis of the ideology but on the basis of numbers.
I have taken the risk of making an estimate of which party would win how many seats, but let me not take the risk of making a guess of who would form the next government. Reading the pulse of millions of voters is easier compared to reading the minds of those who would get elected to the next parliament.
Note: The estimate of seats for different political parties are the personal assessment of the author based on his common political sense. His institution is no way connected with this estimate of seats for different parties. This estimate should not confused as assessment made by his institution.
The Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) will win 195 seats in the 15th Lok Sabha, accoridng to an exclusive exit poll conducted by The Centre for Voting Opinion & Trends in Elections Research (CVoter) for UTVi.
While the Congress is expected to win between 149 and 155 seats, allies (NCP, DMK and others) are likely to win around 47 seats.
If former allies like RJP and LJP rejoin the UPA, the ruling coalition is expected to win between 217 and 237 seats.
National Democratic Alliance (NDA) led by BJP is likely to win 189 seats, and the range is expected to be between 183 and 195 seats. BJP is likely to win between 140 and 146 seats.
CPI (M)-led Third Front is expected to win between 105 and 121 seats. While CPI(M) is likely to get between 31 and 37 seats, Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) is expected to win between 24 and 30 seats.
CVoter has outlined four possible scenarios:
1. UPA government lead by the Congress
UPA (with 195 seats) will form the government with inside support of the Fourth Front (RJD+LJP) and Samajwadi Party, which together will have 32 seats, and outside support of Third Front and others (with 50 seats) totalling 277 seats.
2. NDA government lead by the BJP
NDA (with 189 seats) will form the government with inside support of Third Front (BJD+AIADMK) with 33 seats and outside support (BSP, TDP/TRS and others) with 57 seats totalling 279 seats.
3. Third Front government with Fourth Front
Third Front without BSP (86 seats) forms the goverment with support of Fourth Front (32 seats), UPA partners (32 seats) and Congress-led UPA lending outside support with 166 seats totalling 316 seats.
4. Third Front government with BSP
Third Front with BSP (adding up to 112 seats) forms the government with UPA allies (32 seats) and outside support of UPA
(166 seats) totalling 310 seats...
The field work of the survey was done across 530 parliamentary areas; covering all states. The seat projections are based on polling in the fifth phase till 12.00 AM on Wednesday.
Full Exit Poll
The Herculean exercise of a five-phase General Election to Lok Sabha 2009 is over. But the drama will only begin now when the ballots get counted on Saturday and the scramble for numbers begins.
So who's ahead and who's behind? Will Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) manage to retain the status quo at the Centre or will the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) spring a surprise and take the reins of power?
CNN-IBN in association with the Centre for Study of Developing Societies conducted a post-poll analysis and the results indicate a close race, ending in a photo finish.
The analysis projects a slender lead for the UPA coalition over the NDA and nearly the same number of seats for Congress and BJP individually. Following is the summary of the findings and the riders.
THE BIG PROJECTION: ALLIANCE
- Cong+: 185 to 205 seats
- BJP+: 165 to 185 seats
- Third Front: 110 to 130 seats
- Fourth Front: 25 to 35 seats
- Others: 20 to 30 seats
THE BIG PROJECTION: INDIVIDUAL PARTIES
- Cong: 145 to 160 seats
- BJP: 135 to 150 seats
- Left: 30 to 40 seats
- BSP: 25 to 35 seats
THE RIDERS
- This is interpretation of the National Election Study. National Election Study or CSDS is not making these projections.
- Translating votes into seats is tricky. Hence no dis-aggregations have been made.
- This is a post-poll survey, hence states like Tamil Nadu, Punjab and parts of West Bengal that went to polls for Phase V have not been included. These are projections based on existing data and not.
Explanation: Hence while Congress has a lead, it’s a marginal one and similar is the UPA-NDA balance. Changes that Tamil Nadu, Uttar Pradesh and others could affect would be factored in during the final analysis on May 15.
WHAT DO THESE NUMBERS MEAN?
CNN-IBN Editor in Chief Rajdeep Sardesai and Prof Yogendra Yadav of the CSDS debated and dissected the findings with a panel comprising National Affairs Editor, Diptosh Majumdar; Political Editor of Hindustan Times, Vinod Sharma; senior journalist Dilip Padgaonkar; Rural Affairs Editor of The Hindu, P Sainath; author and historian Ramachandra Guha and Editor, Loksatta, Kumar Ketkar.
JAYALALITHAA: THE KINGMAKER
Dilip Padgaonkar believed that as things stood on May 13, Third Front – with its projected share of 110 seats or so - was a clear magnet, an indication that it could play the kingmaker if it stays together.
“Tamil Nadu election will be crucial because everything depends on the attitudes and the choices that AIADMK makes,” he said.
It’s clear that India is headed for a badly hung Parliament and P Sainath said there were three other factors that were equally clear. “The game remains the same since 1989 – that who is the single largest party and not who gets the majority. Even the bigger fronts are dealing in smaller numbers and a restless electorate is experimenting, going beyond a framework that we are focused on and are voting differently”.
NO NATIONAL ISSUE?
Ramachandra Guha said these elections were different from the 1989 polls for the simple lack of national issue. “In 1989, the issue was corruption of Congress, 1991 – the assassination of a former PM etc. Today even though parties have tried to project, there’s no real national issue”.
So just what hasn’t worked for the UPA? Just a few months ago, political pundits would have given a 230-240 seat share to the ruling coalition but now it’s actually down considerably. So if Lalu and Jayalalithaa do not extend support, it’s back to the Left for the Congress.
On the contrary, the BJP has done reasonably well and NDA cannot be considered out of the race.
UPA AHEAD OF NDA, BJP AHEAD OF CONG!
Vinod Sharma said the popular sentiment seemed to be “non-Congress, anti-BJP”. Yogendra Yadav said the projection does not rule out the possibility of BJP being a little ahead of Congress in terms of seats. “It’s a very interesting scenario: UPA ahead of the NDA but BJP ahead of the Congress,” Yadav explained.
Kumar Ketkar made an interesting analysis. He said if the Congress-led UPA is getting similar numbers as it did in 2004, then five-year Congress rule hasn’t left people satisfied. “It also says that anti-BJP-ism hasn’t really worked. It’s also necessary to understand that Left have also lost. The gainers have been these stray parties. So if Shiv Sena is losing, it’s the MNS and not Congress that’s gaining,” he said.
However, the critical aspect is Jayalalithaa who needs to get at least 30 seats. In that scenario, UPA can form government So if Lalu-Paswan get an equal number and Congress cobbles up somewhere around 203, UPA can form government.
NDA, however would require more support possibly from Mayawati, Mamata Banerjee and possibly even from Jayalalithaa.
POLITICAL REACTIONS
A battery of politicians from across the spectrum reacted to the CNN-IBN-CSDS analysis. Congress’ Anand Sharma denied the partymen were getting sleepless nights. “We will be the single largest party and there will be a substantial difference between Cong and BJP. We have traveled extensively and there’s an acknowledgement of all the good work done,” he said.
Ravi Shankar Prasad of the BJP said Congress was in for a shock. “All the allies of the Congress are in for a shock, the current allies of the BJP are doing well. TRS has come with us, Shiv Sena is likely to do well and DMK is doing badly. BJP is rising in all the states, Cong is doing well in only three states. The real story of these elections is going to be Uttar Pradesh. Once we emerge as the single largest party, a large number of parties would want to see a stable government and have a re-look,” he said, when asked how the party intends to cobble up support.
Anand Sharma said Congress has all options open. “We have to look at the final numbers. Since Congress will be the single largest party, all non-BJP secular parties will be obliged to support us,” he said.
UPA’S ROUTES TO POWER
OPTION 1:
- Cong and its allies get close to 200 seats
- RJD, LJP and SP add about 40 seats
- The Left with 35 seats gives outside support
- UPA+ crosses majority mark
- Likelihood: Possible
OPTION 2:
- UPA gets 180 to 200 seats
- SP gets 25 seats
- Nitish Kumar & Jayalalithaa switch sides
- Smaller parties like BJD, PMK also join in
- UPA+ crosses majority mark
- Verdict: Possible
NDA’s ROUTES TO POWER
OPTION 1:
- NDA gets close to 200 seats
- Ex-NDA partners AIADMK & TDP return with about 50 seats
- Mayawati supports with about 35 MPs
- NDA crosses majority mark
- Likelihood: Possible
THIRD FRONT’S ROUTE TO POWER
OPTION 1:
- Third Front gets about 140 seats
- Gets Fourth Front support
- Gets other UPA allies to support it
- Or gets UPA to lend outside support
- Likelihood: Unlikely
A LONG-DRAWN PROCESS OF GOVT FORMATION?
Clearly, going by these numbers, India is in for a long drawn out process of government formation and all eyes will be on President Pratibha Patil. “Her call will be very difficult because all kinds of claims and counter-claims will be made. If there’s a single largest party, the President – as per tradition – must call the single-largest party. As per Bommai case, the strength has to be proved on floor. It could well be that the BJP or the Cong – as single largest – can’t muster those numbers. But I feel it’s not a three-way contest, it’s a two-way contest,” Vinod Sharma explained.
With polling for the fifteenth Lok Sabha coming to an end on Wednesday, an exclusive News X - AC Nielsen poll has put the Congress led UPA ahead of the NDA - the BJP led alliance.
According to the survey, the UPA is predicted to bag 202 out of total 542 seats. The NDA is slated to win 193 seats. The individual party tally gives 157 seats to the Congress and 154 to the BJP.
The Left-led third front is projected to get 101 seats and set to play a key role in deciding the new dispensation at the Centre. The survey said 46 seats may go to other smaller parties.
The BSP which is expected to play a crucial role will end up with 25 seats.
The Congress-led UPA has been projected to have an edge over NDA and others in the Lok Sabhaelections which are expected to produce a highly-fractured verdict, according to the The Times Of India projection of the outcome of the 2009 Lok Sabha polls.
According to the TOI projection shown exclusively on TIMES NOW , UPA is likely to win 198 seats, the NDA 183, the Third Front 112 seats. The Congress is likely to get 154 seats, while the other UPA constituents could get around 44. In BJP, on the other hand, is likely to get 142 seats, while other parties in the NDA are likely to get 41 seats. In the Third Front, Left parties are projeced to bag 38 seats, BSP 27, AIADMK+ 24, TDP+ 20 and the JD(S) 3. The SP is pegged to get 23 seats, BJD 8, RJD+LJP 6, PRP 4, AUDG 1, SDF 1, NPF 1, HJC 1, JMM 2 and independents are projected to get about 3 seats.
That means that while Congress and BJP lose out a few seats from their 2004 performance, neither has a clear shot at forming the government 272 being the majority mark. Mayawati's BSP, which has been projected to win about 28 seats as well as the AIADMK+ with about 23 seats could well end up holding the key to the government formation.
The state-wise TOI projection is as under:
BIHAR: 40 SEATS
CONG 3 NCP 1 BJP 10 JD(U)19
LEFT 1 RJD 4 LJP 2
ASSAM: 14 SEATS
CONG 5 BPF 1 BJP 4 AGP 3
LEFT 0 AUDF 1
NORTH EAST: 10 SEATS (MEGHALAYA, MANIPUR, MIZORAM, TRIPURA, NAGALAND,SIKKIM)
CONG 4 NCP 1 BJP 0 LEFT 2
NPF 1 SF 1
MADHYA PRADESH: 29 SEATS
CONG 6 BJP 23
GUJARAT: 26 SEATS
CONG 7 BJP 19
RAJASTHAN: 25 SEATS
CONG 12 BJP 11 IND 2
ORISSA: 21 SEATS
CONG 9 BJP 4 BJD 8
PUNJAB: 13 SEATS
CONG 9 BJP 1 SAD 3
KERALA: 20 SEATS
CONG 12 IUML 2 KC(M) 1 LEFT 5
KARNATAKA: 28 SEATS
CONG 9 BJP 16 JD(S) 3
MAHARASHTRA: 48 SEATS
CONG 12 NCP 11 BJP 13 SHS 12
UTTAR PRADESH: 80 SEATS
CONG 13 BJP 14 RLD 3 BSP 28
SP 22
WEST BENGAL: 42 SEATS
CONG 5 TMC 11 BJP 1 LEFT 24
SUCI 1
TAMIL NADU: 39 SEATS
CONG 4, DMK 7, BJP 1, LEFT 4
AIADMK+23
NDTV presents India's largest exit poll covering over 71,000 voters from across the country.
Tamil Nadu, the state which everyone is watching keenly, is headed for a neck-and-neck result between the AIADMK and the DMK Front.
Narendra Modi seems set to better his past performance as BJP looks good to win decisively in Gujarat. The party will also benefit from an uneven vote distribution and is likely to win in Karnataka and in partnership with the JD(U), is set to sweep Bihar.
The Congress retains dominance in Andhra Pradesh and slips through in Orissa thanks to the split in the BJP-BJD alliance.
These are forecasts for some crucial states from an exit poll conducted by NDTV in General Elections 2009. The fieldwork was done by GfK-Mode and 71,500 people were surveyed across India.
On Wednesday, Dr Prannoy Roy and Dorab Sopariwala, along with a panel of experts, analysed the exit poll forecasts for 196 seats in six important states. They shall discuss the rest of the states over the next two days before counting of votes on Saturday, May 16.
Earlier on Wednesday, an estimated 62 per cent of the electorate exercised their franchise in the fifth and final phase of polling in Lok Sabha elections, bringing down the curtain on the month-long democratic exercise, the longest in the world.
The day saw elections to 86 constituencies across nine states and two Union Territories, including all 39 seats in Tamil Nadu.
Counting will be held on May 16.
Andhra Pradesh:
Of the 42 seats, the Congress-led UPA seems set to reaffirm its dominance and repeat its 2004 performance of grabbing a winning 29 seats. The Third Front, which includes the TDP, is projected to gain three seats taking its tally to 10, and the NDA may lose three seats down to two from five in 2004.
Bihar:
The NDA is set to sweep Bihar, winning 33 of the 40 seats. That is up a whopping 22 seats from its 2004 tally of 11. The UPA loses two of its three seats and the rest of the loss is borne by the new Lalu-Paswan Fourth Front combine which loses 21 seats to come crashing down to a mere five seats. A clear thumbs up for Nitish Kumar and his chief ministership.
Gujarat:
From East to West. Nitish Kumar and Narendra Modi did not just dramatically share stage to underscore BJP-JD(U) affection. They also share healthy wins in their respective states. In Gujarat, Narendra Modi is set to gain from his thin margin of 2004, and may add four seats to take his tally to 18. The UPA consequently would slide down four to eight.
Orissa:
The BJP-BJD split in Orissa is likely to help the Congress slip through to get just ahead of the Third Front, which includes Naveen Patnaik's Biju Janata Dal. The UPA looks likely to get 10 seats up seven from its 2004 tally, to nine for the Third Front, down two seats. The NDA loses five seats from its 2004 tally and comes down to two.
Karnataka:
The NDA looks set to do surprisingly well in Karnataka thanks to uneven vote distribution. So, even though the Congress-led UPA may have the larger vote share, the BJP-led NDA is set to win most seats, 17 out of the 28. That is down one from its previous tally. A gain for the UPA, which takes up its tally to nine from eight last year.
Tamil Nadu:
In this state, where the Tamils in Sri Lanka issue has been hot, the alliances led by the two regional giants AIADMK and the DMK are set for a photo-finish. The DMK-led UPA is likely to see a significant six-seat loss down to 20 seats. And the AIADMK may gain five to take its tally to 18.
Overall picture so far:
Six states, 196 seats: The NDA had won 55 of these seats in 2004. It looks set to add 17 to take that tally to 72. The UPA had 81 of these and is likely to lose 4 to get 77 -- still ahead. The Third Front is likely to gain six in its new avatar to grab 39 of these seats and the Fourth Front may lose a huge 20 seats, with the combined tally dwindling to just six.
Alliances:
NDA: BJP, JD(U), SS, AFP, AKALI, RLD, INLD, NPF
UPA: CONG, NCP, DMK, TC, JMM, JKNC, RPI
Third Front: LEFT, BSP, AIADMK, TDP, BJD, TRS, PMK, JDS, MDMK
Fourth Front: RJD, LJP, SP, PRP
Prominent politicians cast their votes as polling for the final phase of general elections came to a close Wednesday.
BJP candidate in Pilibhit, Varun Gandhi on Wednesday alleged that officials at a polling station here had helped the BSP candidate.
Veteran Communist Party of India-Marxist (CPI-M) leader Jyoti Basu injured his left leg after a fall in his bathroom in the wee hours Wednesday and could not vote in the Lok Sabha election, his personal aide said.
The 95-year-old leader was administered medicines at home by doctors, who termed the injury as minor, the aide said.
"Basu is now under medical supervision at home. But doctors said there's no cause for worry. He can't vote this time because of his ailing health. He is now resting," Basu's personal assistant Joykrishna Ghosh told IANS.
West Bengal Governor Gopalkrishna Gandhi called on Basu at his Salt Lake residence in the evening to enquire about his health.
"I saw him. He was in good spirits and discussed international and national politics," Gandhi told reporters after coming out of Indira Bhavan - Basu's residence.
Asked about Basu's health, the governor said: "He is frail. But he still has the same humour and wit in his conversation that he had earlier."
Chief Minister Buddhadeb Bhattacharjee also met Basu at his residence this evening.
This is the first time in 63 years that Basu has not exercised his franchise.
In 1946, he contested his maiden election to the Bengal Provincial Assembly from the Railways Reserved constituency.
The veteran communist leader has a blood clot in the brain from a fall at his Salt Lake residence September last year. The doctors had advised surgery but Basu did not opt for it.
Born July 8 1914, in Kolkata to a wealthy family, Basu was the state's chief minister from 1977 to 2000, when he quit voluntarily on health grounds.
The Election Commission will probe into the malfunctioning of EVMs in 101 polling booths of a Lok Sabha constituency in West Bengal Wednesday, prompting the poll in these booths to be deferred to Thursday.
"We'll order an investigation into the matter and also seek a clarification from the district administration as to how the EVMs were damaged by rain and found faulty on the polling day," West Bengal Chief Electoral Officer (CEO) Debashis Sen told reporters here.
"The person who was in-charge of those EVMs should have been more careful while dealing with the matter," he said.
Polling could not begin in 101 booths of the Mandirbazar assembly segment of Mathurapur Lok Sabha constituency in South 24 Parganas district as the EVMs, which were wet after Tuesday's rain, did not function.
Polling will be held in these booths Thursday between 7 a.m. and 5 p.m., Sen said.
"On the basis of the probe, the Election Commission will finally file a report on the issue," he added.
Nearly 65 percent polling was recorded for nine parliamentary seats in Punjab and one seat in Chandigarh Wednesday as the fifth and final round of voting ended.
Punjab's Chief Electoral Officer Kusumjit Sidhu said the highest polling of 69 percent was recorded in the newly-created border constituency of Khadoor Sahib.
There were 11.6 million eligible voters in Punjab and 522,650 voters in the union territory of Chandigarh for Wednesday's polling.
Election officials in Chandigarh said that over 65 percent of the city's voters came out to vote. This was much higher than the polling percentage of 52 percent in the 2004 general elections.
Election officials said between 40 and 45 percent voting was recorded in Punjab by early afternoon.
Long queues could be seen in Punjab's rural areas and some of the urban polling centres.
In rural areas voters were seen queuing up even before voting began at 7 a.m. at 13,152 polling centres. Urban voters initially seemed less enthusiastic compared to their rural counterparts.
In Chandigarh, which recorded just 52 percent voting in the 2004 general elections, voter turnout seemed much better this time. In the first four hours, nearly 25 percent of the 522,650 electorate of the union territory had exercised their franchise.
The nine constituencies in Punjab that voted Wednesday were Amritsar, Gurdaspur, Khadoor Sahib, Jalandhar (reserved), Hoshiarpur (reserved), Faridkot (reserved), Ludhiana, Fatehgarh Sahib (reserved) and Anandpur Sahib.
Wednesday's polling would decide the fate of 139 candidates in these nine seats. The highest number of candidates, 30, were fighting for the Ludhiana seat.
Prominent candidates in the fray included cricketer-turned-politician Navjot Singh Sidhu (BJP-Amritsar), actor Vinod Khanna (BJP-Gurdaspur), Congress spokesman Manish Tewari (Ludhiana), singer Hans Raj Hans (Akali Dal-Jalandhar) and Lok Sabha Deputy Speaker Charanjit Singh Atwal (Akali Dal-Fatehgarh Sahib).
Sidhu prayed at the Golden Temple, the holiest of Sikh shrines, before casting his vote.
Punjab had recorded a high polling percentage of 73.5 percent in the May 7 poll, when balloting had taken place in the other four constituencies of the state. Less than 62 percent had cast their votes in the 2004 general elections.
In Chandigarh, Minister of State for Finance Pawan Kumar Bansal was among the early ones to cast his vote. He is aiming for a hat-trick of victories from the seat.
There were 14 contestants in the fray for the Chandigarh seat though Bansal's main contest is with Satya Pal Jain of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).
The ruling Akali Dal-Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) combine had won 11 seats in the 2004 elections while the Congress got two.
Two mediapersons were injured after supporters of the ruling Akali Dal chased them on suspicion and beat them up. witnesses said the duo was also fired upon in a village in Moga district. The police later registered a case against 30-35 unidentified people.
But Moga district police chief Ashok Baath said no firing took place. He said the injured were rushed to hospital and the incident was being investigated.
The Punjab Police also booked two sitting Congress legislators, Joginder Pal Jain of Moga and Darshan Singh Brar of Baghapurana.
While Jain was booked for assault and criminal intimidation and also under the Scheduled Castes Act, Brar was booked for forcible entry into a polling station in violation of the Election Commission guidelines.
Minor clashes were reported at a few other places in Punjab but the polling by and large went off peacefully.
Even as the exit polls for the Lok Sabha elections trickled in Wednesday evening predicting a hung parliament, one has to keep in mind that they had all gone woefully wrong in the 2004 electoral battle predicting exactly the opposite of the outcome.
As many as five leading TV channels had then predicted in the previous elections that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) would bag 230 to 278 seats and gave the Congress and its allies 171 to 205 seats.
The results, which led to the formation of the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government, shocked the pollsters, the winners and the losers alike.
The UPA walked away with 275 seats and the NDA finished at 185. The Congress became the single largest party with 145 seats while the BJP got 138 seats.
The exit polls 2009 appear more realistic with the pollsters predicting a close fight between the two main alliances with the Third Front partners, including the Left parties, likely to play kingmakers.
The Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) will end up marginally ahead of the Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in the Lok Sabha elections, exit polls Wednesday night said.
According to a survey by India TV, the UPA would be the single largest coalition with 195-201 seats in the 545-member Lok Sabha while the NDA was expected to win 189-195 seats.
It gave the Third Front 113-121 seats, giving its constituents a huge say in government formation.
The UPA tally could go up to 227-237 if the seats bagged by Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) and Samajwadi Party, estranged alllies of the Congress, were also to be included, India TV said after surveying 530 parliamentary seats.
According to the Star News-Nielsen exit poll, the UPA was likely to bag 199 seats and the NDA 191 seats. The Congress itself was projected to win 155 seats and the BJP 153. The Third Front could settle with 104 seats.
Headlines Today television channel gave the Congress and its allies 191 seats against 180 to the BJP and its allies.
The Left parties, which provided support to Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's government until July last year, were projected to get 38 seats, a huge fall from the earlier tally of 60-plus.
The remaini*ng seats were credited to smaller and regional parties including the ruling Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) in Uttar Pradesh, headed by Mayawati.
The Times of India projection gave the UPA 199 seats with the Congress bagging 154 seats. The NDA was poised to get 183 seats, and the BJP alone 142.
The Congress had defeated the BJP in the last general elections in 2004 and then cobbled the UPA with the support of the Left.
The exit polls were way off the mark in the 2004 elections. Nearly all of them predicted a NDA victory by a wide margin. But the BJP-led grouping lost to a rejuvenated Congress.
India was headed for a badly fractured Lok Sabha making government formation a tough task, television projections late Wednesday showed, as one of the country's most fiercely contested battles for power ended after voting by some 428 million people.
Three projections put the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) slightly ahead of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA), with the Congress tipped to finish as the single largest party in the 545-member Lok Sabha.
As the curtains came down on the staggered elections that began April 16, an India TV exit poll said the UPA could end up with 195-201 seats and the NDA with 189-195 seats. The UPA tally could go up to 227-237 if the seats bagged by its estranged allies were included.
The Star News-Nielsen exit poll also put the UPA marginally ahead with 199 seats, just ahead of the NDA's 191 seats. The Congress itself was expected to win 155 seats and the BJP 153, both more than what they bagged in 2004.
TimesNow television channel gave 198 seats to the UPA and 183 to the NDA, with the Communist strength in the Lok Sabha falling steeply from over 60 to 38. Smaller and regional groups are expected to win 124 seats and thus determine who gets the throne in New Delhi.
The India TV exit poll gave the wobbly Third Front -- an alliance of the Communists and regional parties -- 113-121 seats. The Star-Nielsen gave it 104 seats.
The projections -- mirroring the pre-election mood across the country -- triggered a furious debate among pundits about who would get to rule India by cobbling a coalition of disparate groups.
The expected cliffhanger verdict has already forced the Congress and also the BJP -- the two main contenders for power -- to desperately scout for new allies. As the month-long voting that began April 16 progressed, some parties switched loyalties.
"It seems to be a very complex political situation. It is the complexity that makes it difficult to make any predictions," Kerala-based political analyst N.P. Chekutty told IANS, reflecting an opinion widely shared in the world's largest democracy.
Election officials estimated that some 60 percent of the 714 million electorate - more than the combined population of Russia and the US - had voted over five phases. The results will be known Saturday.
Wednesday's polling was largely peaceful but for the murder of a political worker in Tamil Nadu, where an alliance led by the AIADMK was poised to crush the ruling DMK and its partner Congress, and clashes in West Bengal, where the ruling Marxists are expected to suffer. They are tipped to get a beating in Kerala as well.
The exercise involved all 39 seats of Tamil Nadu, all four seats of Himachal Pradesh and all five seats of Uttarakhand besides two in Jammu and Kashmir, nine in Punjab, 11 in West Bengal and 14 in Uttar Pradesh besides one each in Chandigarh and Pondicherry.
The most notable of the 1,432 candidates included Home Minister P. Chidambaram of the Congress (Sivaganga, Tamil Nadu) and Trinamool Congress chief Mamata Banerjee (South Kolkata).
Fearing uncertain times, Indian markets turned edgy Wednesday, with the key index Sensex losing 138 points from its last closing figure at end of trade.
"I'm fully confident that a BJP-led government will be formed at the centre. We will get new partners (after the polls)," BJP president Rajnath Singh said confidently. Within hours, Congress general secretary Digvijay Singh asserted that his party would occupy the number one slot.
With neither the UPA nor NDA expected to cross the magic figure of 272 in the Lok Sabha, the Congress and BJP tried to outsmart one another in order to woo leaders of smaller and regional parties.
AIADMK chief and former Tamil Nadu chief minister J. Jayalalitha, a key Third Front partner, said in Chennai: "There are feelers from many places. I am not responding to them now. Everything depends on the results. If the results are as expected, then I will go to Delhi."
Congress president Sonia Gandhi, who in 2004 pulled off a coup by most unexpectedly worsting the BJP-led alliance in general elections, Wednesday telephoned estranged ally Ram Vilas Paswan after a fire in his house which adjoins her own in the heart of New Delhi.
An overview of the staggered five-phase general elections that started April 16 and ended May 13. Here are some of the facts:
Total voters - 713.77 million voters
Polling stations - 834,000
Poll observers - 2,046
Polling staff - 4.69 million
Parliamentary constituencies - 543
Assembly elections - Andhra Pradesh (294), Orissa (147) and Sikkim (32)
Total candidates - 8,070
Male candidates - 7,514
Women candidates - 556
Highest number of candidates - Chennai South (43)
Lowest number of candidates - Nagaland (3)
Highest polling station - Auley Phu in Leh, Ladakh (set up at an altitude of 15,300 feet)
Electronic Voting Machine and control units - control units (908,643) and ballot units (11,83,543)
Villages identified as vulnerable - 86,782
People booked under preventive sections - 373,861
Maoist-affected constituencies - 79 seats
High security deployment - 118,604 polling stations
Video-graphers - 74,729
Digital cameras - 40,599
Helicopters - 55
Re-polls - 648 polling stations
The people of this eastern metropolis, known for their political orientation, have left far behind their counterparts from the other four metros in terms of the voting percentage for the ongoing Lok Sabha polls.
Around 66 percent voters in the five constituencies covering Kolkata city and greater Kolkata cast their votes in the last phase of elections in the country Wednesday, according to state Chief Electoral Officer Debasish Sen.
The national capital Delhi, which went to the hustings May 7, had a 50 percent turnout.
In the western metropolis Mumbai, also called the country's commercial capital, the polling percentage April 30 was a poor 41.2.
In the south, information technology (IT) hub Bangalore reported around 47 percent polling in the second phase of elections April 23.
But Kolkata got the toughest competition from the other southern metropolis Chennai which recorded between 55 and 60 percent polling.
In Kolkata proper, 66 percent votes were recorded in Kolkata North and 67 percent in Kolkata South. Parts of Dum Dum, Barasat and Jadavpur constituencies figure in extended Kolkata.
India’s ruling Congress party-led coalition may have won the most seats without securing enough votes to form a government, initial exit polls predicted after a marathon election ended.
Television channels began running exit polls, banned since 714 million voters began casting ballots five weeks ago, with the News X channel forecasting the Congress bloc just ahead of its chief rival headed by the Bharatiya Janata Party by 199 seats to 191, short of the 272 needed for a majority.
Headlines Today and the UTVi business channel broadcast similar figures, raising the prospect of a repeat of 1996 when the new administration collapsed after just 13 days -- at a time the economy is growing at its slowest in six years and militancy is rising in neighboring Pakistan.
“India needs a strong, stable coalition to make the good India story even better,” said Rajeev Malik, a regional economist at Macquarie Group Ltd. in Singapore. “Markets will remain nervous till a clear picture emerges on who will be in the hot seat to drive the economy.”
Early projections pointed to losses for communists in the state of West Bengal and former allies of the ruling Congress in Bihar, whose support may be needed by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh to return to power. A Third Front of smaller parties would win around 100 seats, the polls showed.
Exit polls after the 2004 election by channels including NDTV, Zee News and Aaj Tak overestimated the strength of the then governing BJP and its allies by about 50-70 seats, suggesting they would win days before being dumped from office with just 179 lawmakers in parliament.
Index Slumped
After the last elections, the Bombay Stock Exchange’s Sensitive Index plunged 11 percent on May 17, 2004, the most in more than a decade, as investors feared a government formed by Sonia Gandhi’s Congress party and communist allies would slow the pace of reforms. Trading was halted twice, wiping out $25 billion in market value in a day. The Sensex declined 1.4 percent today.
Congress, the party that has produced three prime ministers for the Nehru-Gandhi family, is battling an alliance headed by the BJP with a loose grouping of regional parties waiting in the wings should they fail to build a majority in parliament. Results will be announced on May 16.
U.S. Ally
India, a Cold War ally of the Soviet Union, moved closer to the U.S. during the administration of President George W. Bush, signing an accord that ended a ban on trade in nuclear fuel and technology imposed after India tested its first atomic bomb in 1974.
The U.S. wants Indian help in its fight against Islamic militancy in the region, especially Pakistan. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh stalled a peace process with India’s nuclear- armed neighbor following last November’s terrorist attacks in Mumbai that killed 166 people.
India says a Pakistan-based militant group, Lashkar-e-Taiba, was behind the raid that raised tensions between the two countries, which have fought three wars. Pakistan has admitted planning took place on its soil. The BJP has accused Congress of being soft on terrorism following the attack and a series of bombings in major cities.
A survey by Star News-Nielsen before the election began indicated the ruling Congress and its allies would win 203 seats in the 545-seat parliament compared with 191 for the bloc headed by the BJP.
Regional Parties
Congress, which won 145 seats in 2004, will hope to turn to regional parties for support in a bid to become the first party to be re-elected after serving a full term since Indira Gandhi won in 1971. The Communists, who withdrew support last year over the nuclear deal that they said threatened India’s sovereignty, have vowed not to back Congress this time.
The BJP, which built itself into a national power from the late 1980s with a campaign to construct a Hindu temple on the site of an ancient mosque, was ousted in 2004 despite exit polls pointing to a clear victory. Its strength fell at the last election to 138 lawmakers.
Whoever voters elect will have to bolster an economy that saw industrial production slump the most in 16 years in March as the global recession forced companies to pare output and curb investments.
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. economist Tushar Poddar predicts a re-elected Congress would expand its rural jobs program and push policies that could boost village demand for cars, telecommunications and consumer goods. A BJP-led government might increase infrastructure spending and restart a privatization program.
Slowing Growth
The International Monetary Fund expects India’s economy to grow 4.5 percent in 2009, while Reserve Bank of India governor Duvvuri Subbarao said April 21 that government stimulus and monetary easing could help expansion recover to 6 percent in the year that started April 1.
Prime Minister Singh says double-digit rates of growth are needed to improve life for the 828 million Indians the World Bank estimates live on less than $2 a day. Singh, 76, is the Congress party’s candidate for prime minister, while Lal Krishna Advani, 81, is the BJP’s pick.
Hunt For Numbers
In today’s final round of voting, a key Congress ally in the southern state of Tamil Nadu is under pressure from Jayalalitha, a former actress and potential power broker to the next administration.
The election is staggered for logistical and security reasons, with police moving around the country to prevent violence or intimidation. Despite that, Maoist rebels active in a dozen of India’s poorest states have killed police officers and polling staff in landmine and gun attacks.
Polling ended at 5 p.m. local time, and television channels were permitted by the Election Commission to begin running exit polls soon after. Pratap Bhanu Mehta, president of the New Delhi think-tank Centre for Policy Research, says Congress or the BJP will need about 140 lawmakers of their own to bring in allies from outside their respective coalitions.
If they fall short of that number, then the alliance of smaller players may be in a position to form a government with the outside support of either Congress or the BJP, Mehta said.
Mayawati, the chief minister of India’s most-populous state of Uttar Pradesh and the champion of those at the bottom of the Hindu caste hierarchy, could emerge as one of several potential candidates for prime minister. (c) Bloomberg
* Hopes of stable govt spark short covering after 2-day fall
* BSE index climbs to highest close since early October
* Some analysts guarded, await poll results on Saturday
* Reliance, banks lead gains (Updates to close)
MUMBAI, May 12 - Indian shares snapped a two-day fall and rallied 4.1 percent on Tuesday to their highest close in more than seven months as investors began betting the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led group, which is seen as market friendly, would win national elections.
Traders said the market was boosted by hopes the next government would not need the support of communists, who had stalled reforms when they allied with the ruling Congress party-led coalition for most of its five-year term.
"There is speculation that the election will result in the formation of a stable government that excludes the left," said T.S. Harihar, senior vice president at ICICI Securities.
The BJP-led group, which suffered a shock election defeat in 2004 and was trailing for weeks in the month-long elections, may now be gaining momentum against a fumbling ruling Congress party coalition thanks to some savvy alliance building. [ID:nISL443528]
Exit polls will be announced after the last round of voting ends on Wednesday and the election results are due on Saturday.
The process of coalition formation following the election results could be chaotic, Credit Suisse analyst Nilesh Jasani said in a note. "The only thing predictable in such events is the unpredictability," he said.
The 30-share BSE index <.BSESN> rose 4.07 percent, or 475.04 points, to 12,158.03, its highest close since Oct. 3. All but one of its components advanced, after choppy trading through the first half of the session, with the benchmark falling as much as 0.5 percent at one stage.
Energy giant Reliance Industries
The BSE index, which had fallen more than 3.5 percent in the previous two sessions, has jumped 51 percent since hitting a 2009 low in early March and is up 26 percent this year after slumping 52 percent in 2008.
Analysts said the market would likely see more volatility when exit polls are released.
"Short-term investors will trade on the exit polls. Those with a longer-term view will wait for the actual results to come out," Anand Shah, head of equities at Canara Robeco Mutual Fund, said.
Traders said investors shrugged off weak economic data.
Industrial output fell at its steepest annual pace in at least 14 years in March, leaving the door open for further interest rate cuts by the central bank.
Factory output in March fell 2.3 percent from a year earlier, the third fall in the past four months and much sharper than market expectations of a 0.5 percent decline. [ID:nDEL155586]
Analysts said the economy was still set for recovery from late 2009.
"We still believe the economy is set for a rebound in the second half of the 2009/10 fiscal year due to fundamental reasons such as fiscal stimulus packages, monetary actions, extra oil and gas output later this year and falling commodity prices and robust domestic demand, " said Robert Prior-Wandesforde, Senior Asian Economist at HSBC in Singapore.
Reliance Industries, which has the biggest weight in the main index, rose 5.3 percent to 1,958.30 rupees, its best close in almost 7-½ months.
Private-sector lender ICICI Bank gained 6.7 percent to 558.65 rupees, while rival HDFC Bank climbed 3.9 percent to 1,189.70 rupees. Government-run State Bank of India advanced 2.8 percent to 1,295.45 rupees.
No. 2 outsourcer Infosys rose 5.5 percent to 1,597.95 rupees. In the broader section, gainers led losers 1,410 to 1,106 on relatively moderate volume of 423 million shares.
The 50-share NSE index <.NSEI> rose 3.6 percent to 3,681.10.
MAIN TOP 3 BY VOLUME
* Unitech
* Suzlon Energy
* HDIL
STOCKS THAT MOVED
* Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd
* United Breweries
The curtains came down on the staggered Lok Sabha elections on Wednesday with millions of Indians voting peacefully in the fifth and last round covering 86 constituencies, and the first exit polls putting the Congress-led coalition on top of a fractured verdict.
Even as both the Congress and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) claimed they would finish as the number one, an India TV exit poll telecast after balloting ended said the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) could end up with 195-201 seats in the 545-member Lok Sabha.
This tally could go up to 227-237 if the seats bagged by estranged allies such as Rashtriya Janata Dal and Samajwadi Party were to be included. The BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) was tipped to bag 189-195 seats and the Third Front 113-121 seats, it said.
But political leaders and analysts kept their fingers tightly crossed, with the expected cliffhanger verdict forcing both the Congress and BJP -- the two main contenders for power -- desperately scouting for new allies. As the voting progressed, some parties switched loyalties, making it one of the most difficult electoral battles to predict.
"It seems to be a very complex political situation. It is the complexity that makes it difficult to make any predictions," Kerala-based political analyst N.P. Chekutty told IANS, reflecting an opinion widely held in the world's largest democracy.
Election officials estimated that some 55 percent of the 714 million electorate - which is more than the combined population of Russia and the US - had voted over five phases starting April 16. The result will be known Saturday.
Wednesday's polling was overwhelmingly peaceful but for the murder of a political worker in Tamil Nadu and clashes in Tamil Nadu and West Bengal, two key states whose outcome will have a bearing on government formation in New Delhi.
The exercise involved all 39 seats of Tamil Nadu, all four seats of Himachal Pradesh and all five seats of Uttarakhand besides two in Jammu and Kashmir, nine in Punjab, 11 in West Bengal and 14 in Uttar Pradesh besides one each in Chandigarh and Pondicherry.
The most notable of the 1,432 candidates included Home Minister P. Chidambaram of the Congress (Sivaganga, Tamil Nadu) and Trinamool Congress chief Mamata Banerjee (South Kolkata).
Fearing uncertain times, Indian markets turned edgy Wednesday, with a key index losing 138 points from its last closing figure at end of trade. The 30-scrip sensitive index of the Bombay Stock Exchange opened at 12,201.93 points and fell 138.38 points or 1.14 percent from Tuesday's close.
"I'm fully confident that a BJP-led government will be formed at the centre. We will get new partners (after the polls)," BJP president Rajnath Singh said confidently. Within hours, Congress general secretary Digvijay Singh asserted that his party would occupy the number one slot.
Not to be left behind, the Third Front - made up of the Communists and regional parties - announced they would meet in New Delhi Monday to decide the future course of action. The meeting would be attended by the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), which is widely expected to win around 40 seats, said Prakash Karat, general secretary of the Communist Party of India-Marxist (CPI-M) and a key mover behind the Third Front.
With neither the UPA nor NDA expected to cross the magic figure of 272 in the Lok Sabha, the Congress and BJP tried to outsmart one another in order to woo leaders of smaller and regional parties.
AIADMK chief and former Tamil Nadu chief minister J. Jayalalitha, a key Third Front partner, said in Chennai: "There are feelers from many places. I am not responding to them now. Everything depends on the results. If the results are as expected, then I will go to Delhi."
Congress president Sonia Gandhi, who in 2004 pulled off a coup by most unexpectedly worsting the BJP-led alliance in general elections, Wednesday telephoned estranged ally Ram Vilas Paswan after a fire in his house which adjoins her own in the heart of New Delhi.
Elections to the 15th Lok Sabha got off to a violent start April 16 leaving 19 people dead in coordinated attacks by Maoist guerrillas during the first round of balloting. The rest of the polling days were, however, largely peaceful.
The long wait for millions of people across India and the desperate moments for Indian TV channels will finally end today after 5 PM. The fifth and final phase of voting is being held in 86 Lok Sabha seats across 7 States and 2 UTs today. Once the polls are over at 5 PM, all major news channels will be busy in telecasting the exit poll results.
The Election Commission had put a ban on all Exit Polls in the country till the final phase elections are over. The Indian News Channels as well as the common people had a long wait to discuss the exit poll results. The 2009 Lok Sabha elections, which began on April 16, will come to an end today. Counting will take place on May 16.
Major News Channels in India such as CNN-IBN, TimesNOW, Star News, Aaj Tak, India TV and NDTV India are all set to telecast the exit polls today, based on their own permutations and combinations. A few weeks ago, all opinion polls had predicted a close fight between the Congress-led UPA and BJP-led NDA. They also gave a slight edge to the UPA. However, the Exit Poll results may come up with many surprises.
The Congress-led UPA has been projected to have an edge over NDA and others in the Lok Sabha elections which are expected to produce a highly-fractured verdict, exit polls on television news channels show.
The results of the surveys, shown by the channels at the end of the fifth and final phase of polling in the month-long exercise, have placed the BJP-led NDA not very far behind the UPA and the Third Front at a little over 100 seats.
'Headlines Today' channel gave Congress and its allies 191 seats against 180 to BJP and its allies. The Left parties, which played a crucial role in the outgoing Lok Sabha with 60 seats, has been projected to get 38 while 'Others' including the BSP are set to get 134 in a House of 543.
In its projections, 'India TV' channel said UPA would get between 195 seats and it could go up to 227 if 32 seats of RJD, LJP and SP are added. The channel has given NDA 189 and the Third Front 113. 'Others' are projected to get 14 seats.
Exit polls had been way off the mark in 2004 Lok Sabha polls, with most of them projecting BJP-led NDA as the winner which did not turn out to be correct.
Ultimately, in 2004 elections the Congress and its pre-poll allies got 216 seats against a projection ranging from 170 to 205 seats. The BJP-led NDA had secured 187 seats against the projections of over 240 to 250 seats.
Tamil Nadu Chief Minister M Karunanidhi and former Chief Minister Jayalalithaa cast their votes in Chennai for Lok Sabha elections on Wednesday.
India TV today released the exit poll spelling out the political picture ahead.
"This massive exercise, undertaken on our behalf by C-Voter, was spread over one month and covered all 5 phases of the elections," Mr Rajat Sharma said.