The Congress-led UPA has been projected to have an edge over NDA and others in the Lok Sabhaelections which are expected to produce a highly-fractured verdict, according to the The Times Of India projection of the outcome of the 2009 Lok Sabha polls.
According to the TOI projection shown exclusively on TIMES NOW , UPA is likely to win 198 seats, the NDA 183, the Third Front 112 seats. The Congress is likely to get 154 seats, while the other UPA constituents could get around 44. In BJP, on the other hand, is likely to get 142 seats, while other parties in the NDA are likely to get 41 seats. In the Third Front, Left parties are projeced to bag 38 seats, BSP 27, AIADMK+ 24, TDP+ 20 and the JD(S) 3. The SP is pegged to get 23 seats, BJD 8, RJD+LJP 6, PRP 4, AUDG 1, SDF 1, NPF 1, HJC 1, JMM 2 and independents are projected to get about 3 seats.
That means that while Congress and BJP lose out a few seats from their 2004 performance, neither has a clear shot at forming the government 272 being the majority mark. Mayawati's BSP, which has been projected to win about 28 seats as well as the AIADMK+ with about 23 seats could well end up holding the key to the government formation.
The state-wise TOI projection is as under:
BIHAR: 40 SEATS
CONG 3 NCP 1 BJP 10 JD(U)19
LEFT 1 RJD 4 LJP 2
ASSAM: 14 SEATS
CONG 5 BPF 1 BJP 4 AGP 3
LEFT 0 AUDF 1
NORTH EAST: 10 SEATS (MEGHALAYA, MANIPUR, MIZORAM, TRIPURA, NAGALAND,SIKKIM)
CONG 4 NCP 1 BJP 0 LEFT 2
NPF 1 SF 1
MADHYA PRADESH: 29 SEATS
CONG 6 BJP 23
GUJARAT: 26 SEATS
CONG 7 BJP 19
RAJASTHAN: 25 SEATS
CONG 12 BJP 11 IND 2
ORISSA: 21 SEATS
CONG 9 BJP 4 BJD 8
PUNJAB: 13 SEATS
CONG 9 BJP 1 SAD 3
KERALA: 20 SEATS
CONG 12 IUML 2 KC(M) 1 LEFT 5
KARNATAKA: 28 SEATS
CONG 9 BJP 16 JD(S) 3
MAHARASHTRA: 48 SEATS
CONG 12 NCP 11 BJP 13 SHS 12
UTTAR PRADESH: 80 SEATS
CONG 13 BJP 14 RLD 3 BSP 28
SP 22
WEST BENGAL: 42 SEATS
CONG 5 TMC 11 BJP 1 LEFT 24
SUCI 1
TAMIL NADU: 39 SEATS
CONG 4, DMK 7, BJP 1, LEFT 4
AIADMK+23
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UPA led by Congress will be ahead of the BJP. I have a gut feeling that Dr. Singh will be the PM for another 5 years. His cabinet will have some new faces from the new UPA partners. Mukerjee, Chidamberam will be there, but I can't say about their ministries. At this stage, it is a common sense gut feeling that it will be lot easier for Sonia to prepare a long list of committed UPA supporters from the left parties because the third front has disintegrated. Most of the disintegrated parties from 3rd front will join the UPA. Ultimately Congress led UPA will have a total strength of about 290 MPs, and BJP led NDA will have less than 250 MPs. Dr. MM. Singh, Chidanmbram, Mukerjee, Rahul, and Sonia will make serious efforts to pull the economy out of Global recession, and provide a strong, secular, and stable government for another 5 years.
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