Loksabha Elections 2009 Results - UPA to get 195 seats, NDA 189: UTV-i - CVoter Exit Poll

The Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) will win 195 seats in the 15th Lok Sabha, accoridng to an exclusive exit poll conducted by The Centre for Voting Opinion & Trends in Elections Research (CVoter) for UTVi.

While the Congress is expected to win between 149 and 155 seats, allies (NCP, DMK and others) are likely to win around 47 seats.

If former allies like RJP and LJP rejoin the UPA, the ruling coalition is expected to win between 217 and 237 seats.

National Democratic Alliance (NDA) led by BJP is likely to win 189 seats, and the range is expected to be between 183 and 195 seats. BJP is likely to win between 140 and 146 seats.

CPI (M)-led Third Front is expected to win between 105 and 121 seats. While CPI(M) is likely to get between 31 and 37 seats, Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) is expected to win between 24 and 30 seats.

CVoter has outlined four possible scenarios:

1. UPA government lead by the Congress
UPA (with 195 seats) will form the government with inside support of the Fourth Front (RJD+LJP) and Samajwadi Party, which together will have 32 seats, and outside support of Third Front and others (with 50 seats) totalling 277 seats.

2. NDA government lead by the BJP
NDA (with 189 seats) will form the government with inside support of Third Front (BJD+AIADMK) with 33 seats and outside support (BSP, TDP/TRS and others) with 57 seats totalling 279 seats.

3. Third Front government with Fourth Front
Third Front without BSP (86 seats) forms the goverment with support of Fourth Front (32 seats), UPA partners (32 seats) and Congress-led UPA lending outside support with 166 seats totalling 316 seats.

4. Third Front government with BSP
Third Front with BSP (adding up to 112 seats) forms the government with UPA allies (32 seats) and outside support of UPA
(166 seats) totalling 310 seats...

The field work of the survey was done across 530 parliamentary areas; covering all states. The seat projections are based on polling in the fifth phase till 12.00 AM on Wednesday.

Full Exit Poll

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