-- Sanjay Kumar is a leading political commentator and analyst. He is also the Deputy Director of Lokniti and a Fellow at the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS), Delhi.
It is going to be a close finish between the Congress and BJP, with Congress and allies likely to have a tally of 191 and the BJP and allies ending up with a score of 180.
But, in this close race to power, the Congress seems to have marginally taken the lead over the BJP. The Congress is likely to get a tally to 154 seats while the BJP is likely to end up with 141.
NCP to emerge as biggest Cong ally
The allies of Congress and BJP seem to be ending up in a tie. It is expected that the Congress allies together (National Conference, JMM, NCP, DMK, Muslim League and Trinmool Congress) would win 38 seats, with NCP emerging to be the biggest ally of the Congress with 14 seats.
The BJP allies (AGP, JD-U, INLD, Shiv Sena, Akali Dal and RLD) together would win 38 seats and JD-U would emerge as the biggest ally with 18 seats. Besides Cong+ and BJP+, all other parties together are likely to have 172 seats in the next Lok Sabha.
Though Congress is likely to improve its tally marginally compared to its performance in the 2004 Lok Sabha elections, there are likely changes in various states. The Congress is likely to suffer minor losses in states like Andhra Pradesh, Assam, Gujarat, Haryana, Himachal Pradesh and Tamil Nadu. But the party can make up for these losses in Kerala, Orissa, Punjab and Rajasthan. It can also make minor gains in Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra.
BJP to gain in Bihar and Gujarat
Similarly, the BJP is likely to lose a large number of seats in Rajasthan while it can suffer minor losses in Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra. But, BJP is likely to make up for its losses from gains in Bihar, Gujarat and Jharkhand. The BJP is also likely to make marginal gains in UP.
Since no party or alliance would be anywhere close to the majority mark, the post-poll alliance would be vital for the formation of the next government. Who would form the next government is the big question to which everybody would like to get an answer.
State-wise projection | |||
|---|---|---|---|
Andhra Pradesh (42) | Bihar (40) | Gujarat (26) | Maharashtra (48) |
| Cong: 22 (-7) | Cong: 3 | Cong: 8 (-4) | Cong: 15 (+2) |
| TDP+: 14 (+9) | BJP: 8 (+3) | BJP: 18 (+4) | NCP: 14 (+5) |
| TRS: 5 | JD(U): 18 (+13) | BJP+: 19 (-6) | |
| PRP: 1 | LJP+RJD: 9 (-14) | Others: 0 (-1) | |
| Others: 0 (-3) | Others: 2 (+1) | ||
Rajasthan (25) | Tamil Nadu (39) | Uttar Pradesh (80) | West Bengal (42) |
| Cong: 14 (+10) | Cong: 2 (-8) | Cong: 10 (+1) | Cong: 5 |
| BJP: 11 (-10) | DMK: 6 (-10) | BJP: 13 (+3) | TC: 10 |
| AIADMK: 22 (+22) | RLD: 3 | BJP: 1 | |
| PMK: 7 (+2) | BSP: 32 (+13) | Left: 26 | |
| Others: 2 (-6) | SP: 22 (-3) | ||
Frankly, at the moment, one can hardly offer any answer to this question. The formation of the next government depends upon which alliance is likely to win over most of the parties, which are at the moment 'non-aligned'.
Post-elections tie-up
In the post-elections alliance, the Left, BSP, SP, AIADMK, TDP, TRS and BJD are the parties to watch out for. These parties are likely to win sizeable number of seats in their respective states.
The Left is likely win 38 Lok Sabha seats and would suffer major losses compared to its performance in 2004, but they would still be a key player in the formation of the next government in Delhi.
In Tamil Nadu, Jayalalithaa with her allies is likely to win 29 seats and their support would also be crucial for the formation of the next government.
In UP, BSP is certain to emerge as the frontrunner with 32 seats and is also likely to win a couple of other seats outside the state too. With 34 seats in the Lok Sabha, Mayawati would also be one of the king-makers in the formation of the next government.
Split of anti-Congress votes
The SP is likely to win 22 Lok Sabha seats. The TDP, which was expected to gain from the anti-incumbency sentiments in Andhra Pradesh against the Congress government, is not likely to do so well since the anti-Congress votes are getting split between the TDP-TRS combine and the Praja Rajayam. But still TDP-TRS would win 17 Lok Sabha seats and their support would be crucial for the formation of the next government.
The BJD, which broke its alliance from the BJP just before the elections, is likely to win eight seats in Orissa.
Since most of the parties that are not part of any alliance and are likely to win sizeable numbers of seats seem to be more anti-BJP than anti-Congress, it may be easier for the Congress compared to the BJP to bring them to their fold. But the irony is that many of these parties may not be willing to be a part of a Congress-led government due to state-level political compulsions.
The support of the Left to the Congress would mean Mamata going out of the alliance. Similarly, while the Congress would ideally like to get support from both SP and BSP, having both Mulayama and Mayawati in the same government is unimaginable.
So, in order to get the support from one, Congress will have to sacrifice the possible support from the other. The TDP, which had been an ally of the BJP earlier, would prefer to support the BJP rather than the Congress eyeing on Muslim votes in the state. But since the party's major poll plank in Andhra Pradesh had been highlighting the "mis-governance" of the Congress government, it would be difficult for the TDP to extend support to the possible Congress-led UPA government. The support of the AIADMK to Cong+ would mean sacrificing the DMK from the alliance, since Karunanidhi and Jayalalithaa can never be in the same formation at any cost.
If these parties, that are at the moment independent and non-aligned and are likely to win sizeable number of seats, cannot be part of the Congress-led government or support its government, does this mean it would be much easier for BJP+ to form the next government in Delhi even if they seem to be slightly behind Cong+ in terms of number at the moment?
The number basis
It is difficult to make an estimate of which party would get how many seats. And it is even more difficult to say which party would support whom. After all, alliances are made not on the basis of the ideology but on the basis of numbers.
I have taken the risk of making an estimate of which party would win how many seats, but let me not take the risk of making a guess of who would form the next government. Reading the pulse of millions of voters is easier compared to reading the minds of those who would get elected to the next parliament.
Note: The estimate of seats for different political parties are the personal assessment of the author based on his common political sense. His institution is no way connected with this estimate of seats for different parties. This estimate should not confused as assessment made by his institution.
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