A higher percentage of India's women MPs are postgraduates compared to their male counterparts and has greater chances of winning elections, suggests a new study.
As many as 32 percent of the 59 women MPs in the 15th Lok Sabha hold postgraduate and doctoral degrees as against 30 percent of male members in the lower house, it says.
The study by PRS Legislative Research, a non-profit organisation dedicated to parliamentary research, also says 10 percent of the women contestants in the April-May general elections won while the figure for men was only six percent.
The findings come at a time when Sharad Yadav, president of the Janata Dal-United, has bitterly opposed the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government's plans for 33 percent reservation for women in parliament.
The 15th Lok Sabha has the highest ever number of women members.
Until now, women MPs had never crossed nine percent of the total strength of the 545-member house, but now the figure is 11 percent - the highest in the history of Indian parliament.
The figure for the Rajya Sabha at the moment is 10 percent and seven percent in state assemblies.
There are more heartwarming statistics. As many as 29 percent of women MPs are less than 40 years of age, a huge jump compared to the previous Lok Sabha when the figure was 17 percent. The average age of all 59 MPs is 47, which too is lower than that of men, 54 years.
No woman is above 70 in the Lok Sabha while over seven percent of male MPs are septuagenarians.
In all, 556 women had contested the 2009 general elections. While the Congress topped the list of victorious women MPs, at 23, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) came in second with 13.
However, it was the West Bengal-based Trinamool Congress of Mamata Banerjee that fielded the highest percentage of women candidates - more than 20 percent - and 17 percent of them turned out to be winners.
Among the states with more than 20 seats in the Lok Sabha, Madhya Pradesh topped the list with 21 percent women MPs followed by West Bengal at 17 percent and Uttar Pradesh at 15 percent.
The PRS research said the percentage of women representatives in the age group of 40 to 60 has gone down. Now less than 57 percent of women fall in this category as compared to over 73 percent in 2004. But this time, women over 60 make up 13.8 percent, while it was a mere 9.8 percent in the 14th Lok Sabha.
In the previous Lok Sabha elections, there were 355 women candidates and 45 of them won, while in 1999 there were 49 victors from among 284 contestants.
The story of how the electorate belied political prophesies and made smooth government formation possible after the Lok Sabha elections deserves close scrutiny because it contains early intimations of a new trend.
Even the best scenario visualised by pollsters had left the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA), widely acknowledged as the frontrunner, far short of a simple majority in the 545-member house. Some experts suggested the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA), a close runner-up, might be in a better position than the UPA to attract support from other parties and raise the tally to 273, needed to chalk up a majority.
As it happened, the UPA was only 10 short of the magic figure. This shortfall was small enough to be made up without placating Prakash Karat, Mayawati, J. Jayalalithaa, Mulayam Singh Yadav and Lalu Prasad, not to mention Nitish Kumar, who too turned up at the auction room.
The voters had so exercised their franchise that the so-called third and fourth fronts were left with no bargaining power at all. The worst sufferers were the reunited Yadavs, who had adopted a strategy calculated to enhance their capability by limiting the Congress party's strength.
This is not the first time that the Indian electorate has demonstrated an uncanny ability to brush aside political gibberish and arrive at the best possible verdict in the circumstances. Millions of voters, taking independent decisions in the privacy of their minds, had given expression to a common will when they voted out Indira Gandhi's emergency regime in 1977. They displayed the same determination again when, sickened by the Janata Party squabbles, they recalled Indira Gandhi.
The 1977 and 1980 verdicts can be explained in terms of a wide swing of the pendulum. The Congress party's vote share had dropped from 43.68 percent in 1971 to 34.52 percent in 1977, sweeping it out of office. It climbed to 42.69 percent in 1980 and the party was back in power.
There was no big swing this time. Provisional figures released by the Election Commission show that the Congress party's share increased slightly from 26.53 percent to 28.55 percent and the BJP's declined slightly from 22.16 percent to 18.80 percent. These changes may be sufficient to explain the rise in the Congress' strength from 145 to 206 and the fall in the BJP's from 138 to 116, but not to understand the way the electorate resolved the national conundrum.
It was the rise of regional parties and the vaulting ambitions of their leaders which had raised fears that government formation might not be easy. There was no appreciable change in the popularity of the national parties and the regional parties. In 2004, the national parties (those recognized as such by the Election Commission) together commanded 62.89 percent of the votes. This time their share was 62.32 percent.
The combined vote of the Congress and the BJP declined from 48.69 percent to 47.35 percent. The decline was too small for the Left parties to realise their pet dream of keeping both of them out of power. Communist Party of India (CPI) general secretary A.B. Bardhan's forecast that the Congress and the BJP together would not win even 250 seats went awry. Actually they increased their combined strength from 283 to 312.
The electorate made government formation easy by eliminating the bargaining capacity of the ambitious leaders of the smaller parties. It rebuffed the sponsors of the Third Front, who wanted to hold the major national parties at bay. The Communist Party of India-Marxist lost 27 seats and the CPI six.
The voters meted out harsh punishment to the Yadavs who had cynically indulged in a game of self-aggrandizement. The Rashtriya Janata Dal of Lalu Prasad lost 20 seats and the Samajwadi Party of Mulayam Singh Yadav lost 13 seats. Their ally, Lok Janshakti Party of Ram Vilas Paswan, lost all its four seats.
The election results provide early intimations of a bipolar trend. A tendency towards a bipolar polity is already in evidence in several states. It is the emergence of diverse forces in the different states that has made coalitions at the centre inevitable.
The parties which aligned themselves with either of the major national parties did well. Those ranged on the side of the Congress benefited the most. The Trinamool Congress in West Bengal made a whopping gain of 17 seats. Going by the winner-takes-all pattern witnessed in Tamil Nadu in recent years, Jayalalithaa's AIADMK should have made a clean sweep this time. Anticipating such a development, the well-known electoral weather cocks, Vaiko's Marumalarchi DMK and S. Ramadoss' PMK switched to her side. The results were disastrous: while the PMK lost all its six seats, the MDMK managed to save one of its four seats.
Chief Minister Nitish Kumar's poll eve vacillation notwithstanding, the Janata Dal-United, BJP's partner in the NDA, fared well in Bihar. The only Third Front party to buck the bipolar trend was Orissa's Biju Janata Dal.
History was made in India Wednesday when diplomat-turned-politician Meira Kumar, 64, became the first woman speaker of the Lok Sabha - the lower house of parliament - with MPs cutting across party lines to elect the Dalit leader.
The newly elected members of the 15th Lok Sabha watched in rapt attention as Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and Leader of Opposition L.K. Advani, who were engaged in a bitter war of words until a month ago, together led Meira Kumar to the podium.
Political leaders from various parties paid rich tributes to Meira Kumar, who had quit the prestigious Indian Foreign Service (IFS) in 1985 to join the Congress, a party of which her father, the late Jagjivan Ram, was a revered leader.
"In many ways it is a historic event as it is for the first time that a Congress woman member of house has been unanimously elected as speaker," Manmohan Singh said, evoking thunderous applause in the splintered 545-member Lok Sabha.
Party president Sonia Gandhi proposed Meira Kumar's name for the post. Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee seconded it.
Member after member welcomed the speaker. She returned the compliments, saying it was "a "historic decision" to elect a woman to the coveted post and thanked everyone for being chosen for the honour.
She assured the house that she would be judicious and give all members equal opportunity to speak.
Meira Kumar told a press conference later: "It was a historic decision to elect a woman speaker. I am deeply honoured that I have been elected the first woman speaker of the great and vibrant democracy that we have."
Later, when journalists asked her if men should be scared now that India has a woman president and a speaker, she laughed: "Well, I think so."
The prime minister said he hoped the "charm" and "grace" of the new speaker would "calm frayed tempers that sometimes happen in the house", evoking widespread laughter from MPs.
The Lok Sabha speaker's status in the Warrant of Precedence is next only to the president, vice president and prime minister. Meira Kumar is the 16th speaker of the Lok Sabha.
Advani said he did not have any idea that Meira Kumar would be elected the speaker when she was sworn in May 22 with 18 other cabinet ministers of the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government.
"I read (in newspapers) that your voters are disappointed with your election as speaker but I feel you will be able to serve the people better in this position than as a minister," he said.
Finance Minister Mukherjee, leader of the lower house, said: "Your experience as a diplomat, political organiser, administrator in government and long standing in parliament and association with this house will help you render your responsibility as best as possible... in the real temple of democracy."
Communist Party of India's Gurudas Dasgupta said Meira Kumar's election marked a new chapter in India's parliament.
Meira Kumar belongs to the Dalit - formerly untouchable - community, one reason why political parties across the spectrum in the hung house rushed to support her.
The new speaker got down to her new job even as senior leaders of various parties were busy singing paeans to her and wishing her success. This was when two leaders from her home state of Bihar exchanged heated arguments in the house.
In her mild-mannered but firm way, Meira Kumar expunged the remarks made by Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) chief Lalu Prasad and Janata Dal-United (JD-U) president Sharad Yadav, who had a spat when the former was giving his congratulatory speech to the new speaker.
"Nothing of this will go on record," the speaker said.
A double graduate of Delhi University, Meira Kumar joined the IFS in 1973 and served in the Indian missions in Spain, Britain and Mauritius.
She took to politics in 1985 when Congress leader Rajiv Gandhi was prime minister. She was elected to the Lok Sabha twice from Karol Bagh constituency in the national capital.
After one defeat, she shifted to Sasaram in Bihar -- a constituency that her father Jagjivan Ram, a long-time confidant of Indira Gandhi, represented for years in the Lok Sabha.
Meira Kumar, while taking the compliments of one and all, exhorted the Lok Sabha MPs to put the elections behind them and address the social and economic problems facing the country.
United News of India reports:
Sixty four-year-old Meira Kumar is the first woman Speaker of the Lok Sabha in the world's largest democracy.
She is also the second Dalit to hold this position, the first being the late G M C Balayogi.
By opting for a woman as a Speaker for the first time, the Congress hopes to take the message of social and woman empowerment into the rival camp.
The Congress decision to have a woman Speaker is a clear signal that the 124-year-old party is bent on getting passed the long pending bill seeking to give 33 per cent reservation for women in Parliament and state Assemblies.
The women's quota bill was one of the major electoral promises in the Congress manifesto for the 2009 general elections. The bill was introduced in the Rajya Sabha by the first UPA government towards the fag end of its term early this year.
The election of Ms Kumar was unanimous with the Opposition also supporting her candidature.
She was elected to the Lok Sabha in the 2009 general elections from the Sasaram seat in Bihar, where the Congress could manage to get only two out of the 40 seats. She has earlier represented Uttar Pradesh and Delhi in the Lok Sabha.
Ms Kumar is soft-spoken but a firm pursuer of her social missions.
Daughter of late Deputy Prime Minister and prominent dalit leader Babu Jagjivan Ram and Indrani Devi, Meira Kumar gave up a career in the Indian Foreign Service which she had joined in 1973 on the request of the then Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi, to enter politics and claim her father's legacy.
She was born in Patna on March 31,1945. Her husband, Manjul Kumar is a Supreme Court lawyer and they have three children, Anshul, Swati and Devangna, all married.
Poet, painter, sportsperson and a social activist, Ms Kumar was educated at Indraprastha College and Miranda House, University of Delhi. She is a graduate in law and holds a Masters in English.
Ms Kumar successfully contested for the Lok Sabha seat from Bijnore in Uttar Pradesh in 1985. She was a member of the 11th and 12th Lok Sabha, re-elected with a record margin from her father's former constituency of Sasaram in Bihar.
She was inducted into the Manmohan Singh Cabinet as Minister of Social Justice and Empowerment in 2004.
Ms Kumar has actively participated in a number of movements for social reforms and protection of human rights.
Besides being a Minister, she has served on various important posts in Parliament including as Member, Consultative Committee, Ministry of External Affairs, General-Secretary, All India Congress Committee (AICC), Member, Congress Working Committee (CWC) and Public Accounts Committee.
Ms Kumar has also been closely asociated with a number of social and cultural organisations. She is President and Founder of the All India Samta Movement (also its founder). She has been on the Governing Body, Indian Council of Cultural Relations (ICCR) in 1987-92, and on the Central Advisory Board of Education, 1977-90 and 2004 onwards.
She has served on the National Commission on Population, and the National Integration Council.
She was Chairperson, National Drought Relief Committee of the Congress party during the century's worst drought in 1967. She had launched a Family Adoption Scheme under which drought-affected families were adopted by affluent families.
Ms Kumar has been committed to human rights and abolition of the caste system. She has visited a number of places where atrocities were committed against Scheduled Castes and Scheduled Tribes.
Ms Kumar's hobbies include painting and writing poems some of which have been published. She was the editor of Pavan Prasad--a monthly magazine (1980-92).
Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) president Rajnath Singh Saturday said he has been asked to convince the party's prime ministerial candidate L.K. Advani to remain head of the BJP MPs in parliament.
He said in a meeting of the parliamentary party Saturday, Advani had expressed his "will" not to become the parliamentary party leader, but the party did not agree.
"Another meeting was convened and I was given the task of meeting Advani and convincing him to accept the leadership in parliament," Singh told reporters here.
Expressing his thanks to the people of Ghaziabad residents, he promised he would discharge his duty as MP without any discrimination. "All are equal to me and I would serve them to my full capacity," he said.
The BJP chief said he had telephoned Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and Congress president Sonia Gandhi on his way to Ghaziabad and conveyed his party's full constructive support to strengthen the country.
For Karnataka Chief Minister B.S. Yeddyurappa, D-day turned into an anti-climax as the joy of his party winning 19 of the 28 Lok Sabha seats in the state was dashed by the defeat of the Bharatiya Janata Party-led (BJP) National Democratic Alliance (NDA).
Though the party demonstrated its hold in the state by increasing its tally to 19 seats from 18 in the 2004 elections, the failure of the BJP and its pre-poll allies in posing a modicum of challenge to the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) has reduced the massive victory in the state to mere academic interest.
"Though we have succeeded in retaining the trust of the people across the state, the performance of the NDA at the national level is disappointing. Our national leadership will analyse the factors behind the loss," Yeddyurappa told reporters after the verdict.
Thanking the people of Karnataka for a resounding mandate to the BJP, the chief minister said though the final outcome was not up to the party's expectation it was satisfactory.
"We had expected to win 22 seats but have won 19. By winning one more than in 2004 elections, the party has strengthened its position in this election. We have lost three-four seats by a narrow margin due to internal agreement between the Congress and the JD-S (Janata Dal-Secular)," Yeddyurappa pointed out.
Asked about the victory of his son B.Y. Raghavendra from the high-profile Shimoga, an elated Yeddyurappa said it was a victory of the people and his party's cadres, who toiled to defeat former chief minister and party-hopper S. Bangarappa.
Bangarappa had left the Samajwadi Party (SP) to contest on a Congress ticket for the sixth time.
The 77-year-old Bangarappa, who retained the seat in 2004 elections contesting from the BJP and retained the seat in a bye-election as SP candidate in March 2005, lost to 36-year-old Raghavendra by a margin of 52,893 votes.
Incidentally, Yeddyurappa defeated Bangarappa from the Shikaripura assembly segment of the parliamentary constituency in the May 2008 assembly elections.
"As far as the BJP's defeat at the national level is concerned, we have to bow our head to the people's verdict. We will sit down in Delhi soon to discuss the factors that let us down in north India. The party's victory in the state has put greater responsibility on us to work for the development of Karnataka on 24x7," Yeddyurappa asserted.
Referring to the party's candidates winning all the three seats in Bangalore, the chief minister said it was ample demonstration of the state government's efforts to improve the tech hub's crumbling infrastructure and chaotic traffic since the party came to power a year ago.
Meanwhile, Karnataka Pradesh Congress Committee (KPCC) president R.V. Deshpande accepted responsibility for the poor showing of the party, whose strength in the 15th Lok Sabha declined to six from eight earlier.
"We bow to the verdict of the people in all humility. I take the moral and legal responsibility for not able to win more than six seats in the state. It's collective responsibility. The party's high command will take the decision on how to revive our fortunes," Deshpande told reporters, adding he would not resign from the party's post unless directed by the high command.
Meanwhile, former prime minister and JD-S supremo H.D. Deve Gowda, who won from Hassan for the third time in a row with the highest victory margin in the state (291,113 votes), said he would accept the mandate of the people gracefully.
"I have not been well. I will talk to you people later when I get well. Our party has fared better than last time by winning three seats in the state as against two in the 2004 elections. We have wrested Mandya from the Congress," Deve Gowda said.
When asked about the fate of the Third Front, which he spearheaded to form in March, Deve Gowda said he would discuss with the leaders of the Left parties next week on their next course of action.
The Election Commission's new website, specially created to provide the Lok Sabha election trends and results, developed technical snags in the morning and evening Saturday.
The website's server crashed for over two hours in the evening and poll panel officials said it would be set right soon.
"A technical team of the National Informatics Centre (NIC) is still working to clear the snags that developed in the new website," an Election Commission official said here.
This was the second time the website developed technical snags. It faced problems in the morning due to a huge rush of visitors to the site.
"Since early Saturday a lot of people have been checking the new Election Commission website for the results because of which there has been a congestion. This caused snags in the website," Deputy Election Commissioner Alok Shukla told IANS.
The Election Commission website for the results is www.eciresults.nic.in.
The Election Commission's new website, specially created to provide the Lok Sabha election trends and results, developed technical snags in the morning and evening Saturday.
The website's server crashed for over two hours in the evening and poll panel officials said it would be set right soon.
"A technical team of the National Informatics Centre (NIC) is still working to clear the snags that developed in the new website," an Election Commission official said here.
This was the second time the website developed technical snags. It faced problems in the morning due to a huge rush of visitors to the site.
"Since early Saturday a lot of people have been checking the new Election Commission website for the results because of which there has been a congestion. This caused snags in the website," Deputy Election Commissioner Alok Shukla told IANS.
The Election Commission website for the results is www.eciresults.nic.in.
After its poor showing in the Lok Sabha and Andhra Pradesh assembly polls, Telugu Desam Party (TDP) president N. Chandrababu Naidu Saturday said that his party would analyse the election results.
The TDP-led four-party Grand Alliance suffered defeat in both the assembly and Lok Sabha elections.
The alliance won 108 seats in the 294-member state assembly and bagged eight out of the state's 42 Lok Sabha seats. TDP won 93 assembly and six Lok Sabha seats on its own.
Naidu told reporters that the results were below his expectations and the party would begin district-wise analysis of the results.
"We need to analyse the results in detail because the Congress has won more Lok Sabha seats as compared to assembly seats. The UPA has bagged more seats than its own expectations in several states," he said.
Naidu said the TDP would work as a "responsible opposition party". "We will play the role of an effective opposition to serve the people," he said.
Partywise Standings in Loksabha Elections 2009
Data as on : May 16 2009 9:36PM
| Party | Winners | Leading | Total | Party Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bahujan Samaj Party | 0 | 25 | 25 | National |
| Bharatiya Janata Party | 0 | 100 | 100 | National |
| Communist Party of India | 0 | 3 | 3 | National |
| Communist Party of India (Marxist) | 0 | 17 | 17 | National |
| Indian National Congress | 0 | 185 | 185 | National |
| Nationalist Congress Party | 0 | 11 | 11 | National |
| Rashtriya Janata Dal | 0 | 7 | 7 | National |
| All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam | 0 | 10 | 10 | State |
| All India Forward Bloc | 0 | 1 | 1 | State |
| All India Trinamool Congress | 0 | 10 | 10 | State |
| Asom Gana Parishad | 0 | 1 | 1 | State |
| Assam United Democratic Front | 0 | 2 | 2 | State |
| Biju Janata Dal | 0 | 14 | 14 | State |
| Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam | 0 | 19 | 19 | State |
| Jammu & Kashmir National Conference | 0 | 3 | 3 | State |
| Janata Dal (Secular) | 0 | 3 | 3 | State |
| Janata Dal (United) | 0 | 11 | 11 | State |
| Kerala Congress (M) | 0 | 1 | 1 | State |
| Lok Jan Shakti Party | 0 | 2 | 2 | State |
| Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam | 0 | 1 | 1 | State |
| Muslim League Kerala State Committee | 0 | 2 | 2 | State |
| Nagaland Peoples Front | 0 | 1 | 1 | State |
| Samajwadi Party | 0 | 24 | 24 | State |
| Shiromani Akali Dal | 0 | 4 | 4 | State |
| Shivsena | 0 | 9 | 9 | State |
| Sikkim Democratic Front | 0 | 1 | 1 | State |
| Telangana Rashtra Samithi | 0 | 3 | 3 | State |
| Telugu Desam | 0 | 7 | 7 | State |
| Bodaland Peoples Front | 0 | 1 | 1 | UnRecognized |
| Haryana Janhit Congress (BL) | 0 | 1 | 1 | UnRecognized |
| Jharkhand Vikas Morcha (Prajatantrik) | 0 | 1 | 1 | UnRecognized |
| Mahagujarat Janta Party | 0 | 1 | 1 | UnRecognized |
| Maharashtra Navnirman sena | 0 | 1 | 1 | UnRecognized |
| Peoples Democratic Alliance | 0 | 1 | 1 | UnRecognized |
| Praja Rajyam Party | 0 | 1 | 1 | UnRecognized |
| Rashtriya Lok Dal | 0 | 3 | 3 | UnRecognized |
| Swabhimani Paksha | 0 | 1 | 1 | UnRecognized |
| Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katch | 0 | 2 | 2 | UnRecognized |
| Independent | 0 | 7 | 7 | Independents |
Election Commission has launched a special website www.eciresults.nic.in to make available the Lok Sabha as well as the assembly election outcome instantly.
The Commission has made elaborate arrangements to gather results from 1,080 counting centres across the country for which over 60,000 staff would be deployed.
The counting of votes would be taken up at 8.00 am on Saturday.
The Commission had developed a special software that will ensure the result sheet from each counting hall after every round is sent to the data and the media centres simultaneously.
Both National parties Congress and BJP have conducted their own Exit poll surveys. Lets take a look at the Exit Polls results.
Bharatiya Janta Party Exit Poll Results:
Indian National Congress Exit Poll results:
-- Sanjay Kumar is a leading political commentator and analyst. He is also the Deputy Director of Lokniti and a Fellow at the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS), Delhi.
It is going to be a close finish between the Congress and BJP, with Congress and allies likely to have a tally of 191 and the BJP and allies ending up with a score of 180.
But, in this close race to power, the Congress seems to have marginally taken the lead over the BJP. The Congress is likely to get a tally to 154 seats while the BJP is likely to end up with 141.
NCP to emerge as biggest Cong ally
The allies of Congress and BJP seem to be ending up in a tie. It is expected that the Congress allies together (National Conference, JMM, NCP, DMK, Muslim League and Trinmool Congress) would win 38 seats, with NCP emerging to be the biggest ally of the Congress with 14 seats.
The BJP allies (AGP, JD-U, INLD, Shiv Sena, Akali Dal and RLD) together would win 38 seats and JD-U would emerge as the biggest ally with 18 seats. Besides Cong+ and BJP+, all other parties together are likely to have 172 seats in the next Lok Sabha.
Though Congress is likely to improve its tally marginally compared to its performance in the 2004 Lok Sabha elections, there are likely changes in various states. The Congress is likely to suffer minor losses in states like Andhra Pradesh, Assam, Gujarat, Haryana, Himachal Pradesh and Tamil Nadu. But the party can make up for these losses in Kerala, Orissa, Punjab and Rajasthan. It can also make minor gains in Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra.
BJP to gain in Bihar and Gujarat
Similarly, the BJP is likely to lose a large number of seats in Rajasthan while it can suffer minor losses in Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra. But, BJP is likely to make up for its losses from gains in Bihar, Gujarat and Jharkhand. The BJP is also likely to make marginal gains in UP.
Since no party or alliance would be anywhere close to the majority mark, the post-poll alliance would be vital for the formation of the next government. Who would form the next government is the big question to which everybody would like to get an answer.
State-wise projection | |||
|---|---|---|---|
Andhra Pradesh (42) | Bihar (40) | Gujarat (26) | Maharashtra (48) |
| Cong: 22 (-7) | Cong: 3 | Cong: 8 (-4) | Cong: 15 (+2) |
| TDP+: 14 (+9) | BJP: 8 (+3) | BJP: 18 (+4) | NCP: 14 (+5) |
| TRS: 5 | JD(U): 18 (+13) | BJP+: 19 (-6) | |
| PRP: 1 | LJP+RJD: 9 (-14) | Others: 0 (-1) | |
| Others: 0 (-3) | Others: 2 (+1) | ||
Rajasthan (25) | Tamil Nadu (39) | Uttar Pradesh (80) | West Bengal (42) |
| Cong: 14 (+10) | Cong: 2 (-8) | Cong: 10 (+1) | Cong: 5 |
| BJP: 11 (-10) | DMK: 6 (-10) | BJP: 13 (+3) | TC: 10 |
| AIADMK: 22 (+22) | RLD: 3 | BJP: 1 | |
| PMK: 7 (+2) | BSP: 32 (+13) | Left: 26 | |
| Others: 2 (-6) | SP: 22 (-3) | ||
Frankly, at the moment, one can hardly offer any answer to this question. The formation of the next government depends upon which alliance is likely to win over most of the parties, which are at the moment 'non-aligned'.
Post-elections tie-up
In the post-elections alliance, the Left, BSP, SP, AIADMK, TDP, TRS and BJD are the parties to watch out for. These parties are likely to win sizeable number of seats in their respective states.
The Left is likely win 38 Lok Sabha seats and would suffer major losses compared to its performance in 2004, but they would still be a key player in the formation of the next government in Delhi.
In Tamil Nadu, Jayalalithaa with her allies is likely to win 29 seats and their support would also be crucial for the formation of the next government.
In UP, BSP is certain to emerge as the frontrunner with 32 seats and is also likely to win a couple of other seats outside the state too. With 34 seats in the Lok Sabha, Mayawati would also be one of the king-makers in the formation of the next government.
Split of anti-Congress votes
The SP is likely to win 22 Lok Sabha seats. The TDP, which was expected to gain from the anti-incumbency sentiments in Andhra Pradesh against the Congress government, is not likely to do so well since the anti-Congress votes are getting split between the TDP-TRS combine and the Praja Rajayam. But still TDP-TRS would win 17 Lok Sabha seats and their support would be crucial for the formation of the next government.
The BJD, which broke its alliance from the BJP just before the elections, is likely to win eight seats in Orissa.
Since most of the parties that are not part of any alliance and are likely to win sizeable numbers of seats seem to be more anti-BJP than anti-Congress, it may be easier for the Congress compared to the BJP to bring them to their fold. But the irony is that many of these parties may not be willing to be a part of a Congress-led government due to state-level political compulsions.
The support of the Left to the Congress would mean Mamata going out of the alliance. Similarly, while the Congress would ideally like to get support from both SP and BSP, having both Mulayama and Mayawati in the same government is unimaginable.
So, in order to get the support from one, Congress will have to sacrifice the possible support from the other. The TDP, which had been an ally of the BJP earlier, would prefer to support the BJP rather than the Congress eyeing on Muslim votes in the state. But since the party's major poll plank in Andhra Pradesh had been highlighting the "mis-governance" of the Congress government, it would be difficult for the TDP to extend support to the possible Congress-led UPA government. The support of the AIADMK to Cong+ would mean sacrificing the DMK from the alliance, since Karunanidhi and Jayalalithaa can never be in the same formation at any cost.
If these parties, that are at the moment independent and non-aligned and are likely to win sizeable number of seats, cannot be part of the Congress-led government or support its government, does this mean it would be much easier for BJP+ to form the next government in Delhi even if they seem to be slightly behind Cong+ in terms of number at the moment?
The number basis
It is difficult to make an estimate of which party would get how many seats. And it is even more difficult to say which party would support whom. After all, alliances are made not on the basis of the ideology but on the basis of numbers.
I have taken the risk of making an estimate of which party would win how many seats, but let me not take the risk of making a guess of who would form the next government. Reading the pulse of millions of voters is easier compared to reading the minds of those who would get elected to the next parliament.
Note: The estimate of seats for different political parties are the personal assessment of the author based on his common political sense. His institution is no way connected with this estimate of seats for different parties. This estimate should not confused as assessment made by his institution.
The Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) will win 195 seats in the 15th Lok Sabha, accoridng to an exclusive exit poll conducted by The Centre for Voting Opinion & Trends in Elections Research (CVoter) for UTVi.
While the Congress is expected to win between 149 and 155 seats, allies (NCP, DMK and others) are likely to win around 47 seats.
If former allies like RJP and LJP rejoin the UPA, the ruling coalition is expected to win between 217 and 237 seats.
National Democratic Alliance (NDA) led by BJP is likely to win 189 seats, and the range is expected to be between 183 and 195 seats. BJP is likely to win between 140 and 146 seats.
CPI (M)-led Third Front is expected to win between 105 and 121 seats. While CPI(M) is likely to get between 31 and 37 seats, Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) is expected to win between 24 and 30 seats.
CVoter has outlined four possible scenarios:
1. UPA government lead by the Congress
UPA (with 195 seats) will form the government with inside support of the Fourth Front (RJD+LJP) and Samajwadi Party, which together will have 32 seats, and outside support of Third Front and others (with 50 seats) totalling 277 seats.
2. NDA government lead by the BJP
NDA (with 189 seats) will form the government with inside support of Third Front (BJD+AIADMK) with 33 seats and outside support (BSP, TDP/TRS and others) with 57 seats totalling 279 seats.
3. Third Front government with Fourth Front
Third Front without BSP (86 seats) forms the goverment with support of Fourth Front (32 seats), UPA partners (32 seats) and Congress-led UPA lending outside support with 166 seats totalling 316 seats.
4. Third Front government with BSP
Third Front with BSP (adding up to 112 seats) forms the government with UPA allies (32 seats) and outside support of UPA
(166 seats) totalling 310 seats...
The field work of the survey was done across 530 parliamentary areas; covering all states. The seat projections are based on polling in the fifth phase till 12.00 AM on Wednesday.
Full Exit Poll
The Herculean exercise of a five-phase General Election to Lok Sabha 2009 is over. But the drama will only begin now when the ballots get counted on Saturday and the scramble for numbers begins.
So who's ahead and who's behind? Will Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) manage to retain the status quo at the Centre or will the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) spring a surprise and take the reins of power?
CNN-IBN in association with the Centre for Study of Developing Societies conducted a post-poll analysis and the results indicate a close race, ending in a photo finish.
The analysis projects a slender lead for the UPA coalition over the NDA and nearly the same number of seats for Congress and BJP individually. Following is the summary of the findings and the riders.
THE BIG PROJECTION: ALLIANCE
- Cong+: 185 to 205 seats
- BJP+: 165 to 185 seats
- Third Front: 110 to 130 seats
- Fourth Front: 25 to 35 seats
- Others: 20 to 30 seats
THE BIG PROJECTION: INDIVIDUAL PARTIES
- Cong: 145 to 160 seats
- BJP: 135 to 150 seats
- Left: 30 to 40 seats
- BSP: 25 to 35 seats
THE RIDERS
- This is interpretation of the National Election Study. National Election Study or CSDS is not making these projections.
- Translating votes into seats is tricky. Hence no dis-aggregations have been made.
- This is a post-poll survey, hence states like Tamil Nadu, Punjab and parts of West Bengal that went to polls for Phase V have not been included. These are projections based on existing data and not.
Explanation: Hence while Congress has a lead, it’s a marginal one and similar is the UPA-NDA balance. Changes that Tamil Nadu, Uttar Pradesh and others could affect would be factored in during the final analysis on May 15.
WHAT DO THESE NUMBERS MEAN?
CNN-IBN Editor in Chief Rajdeep Sardesai and Prof Yogendra Yadav of the CSDS debated and dissected the findings with a panel comprising National Affairs Editor, Diptosh Majumdar; Political Editor of Hindustan Times, Vinod Sharma; senior journalist Dilip Padgaonkar; Rural Affairs Editor of The Hindu, P Sainath; author and historian Ramachandra Guha and Editor, Loksatta, Kumar Ketkar.
JAYALALITHAA: THE KINGMAKER
Dilip Padgaonkar believed that as things stood on May 13, Third Front – with its projected share of 110 seats or so - was a clear magnet, an indication that it could play the kingmaker if it stays together.
“Tamil Nadu election will be crucial because everything depends on the attitudes and the choices that AIADMK makes,” he said.
It’s clear that India is headed for a badly hung Parliament and P Sainath said there were three other factors that were equally clear. “The game remains the same since 1989 – that who is the single largest party and not who gets the majority. Even the bigger fronts are dealing in smaller numbers and a restless electorate is experimenting, going beyond a framework that we are focused on and are voting differently”.
NO NATIONAL ISSUE?
Ramachandra Guha said these elections were different from the 1989 polls for the simple lack of national issue. “In 1989, the issue was corruption of Congress, 1991 – the assassination of a former PM etc. Today even though parties have tried to project, there’s no real national issue”.
So just what hasn’t worked for the UPA? Just a few months ago, political pundits would have given a 230-240 seat share to the ruling coalition but now it’s actually down considerably. So if Lalu and Jayalalithaa do not extend support, it’s back to the Left for the Congress.
On the contrary, the BJP has done reasonably well and NDA cannot be considered out of the race.
UPA AHEAD OF NDA, BJP AHEAD OF CONG!
Vinod Sharma said the popular sentiment seemed to be “non-Congress, anti-BJP”. Yogendra Yadav said the projection does not rule out the possibility of BJP being a little ahead of Congress in terms of seats. “It’s a very interesting scenario: UPA ahead of the NDA but BJP ahead of the Congress,” Yadav explained.
Kumar Ketkar made an interesting analysis. He said if the Congress-led UPA is getting similar numbers as it did in 2004, then five-year Congress rule hasn’t left people satisfied. “It also says that anti-BJP-ism hasn’t really worked. It’s also necessary to understand that Left have also lost. The gainers have been these stray parties. So if Shiv Sena is losing, it’s the MNS and not Congress that’s gaining,” he said.
However, the critical aspect is Jayalalithaa who needs to get at least 30 seats. In that scenario, UPA can form government So if Lalu-Paswan get an equal number and Congress cobbles up somewhere around 203, UPA can form government.
NDA, however would require more support possibly from Mayawati, Mamata Banerjee and possibly even from Jayalalithaa.
POLITICAL REACTIONS
A battery of politicians from across the spectrum reacted to the CNN-IBN-CSDS analysis. Congress’ Anand Sharma denied the partymen were getting sleepless nights. “We will be the single largest party and there will be a substantial difference between Cong and BJP. We have traveled extensively and there’s an acknowledgement of all the good work done,” he said.
Ravi Shankar Prasad of the BJP said Congress was in for a shock. “All the allies of the Congress are in for a shock, the current allies of the BJP are doing well. TRS has come with us, Shiv Sena is likely to do well and DMK is doing badly. BJP is rising in all the states, Cong is doing well in only three states. The real story of these elections is going to be Uttar Pradesh. Once we emerge as the single largest party, a large number of parties would want to see a stable government and have a re-look,” he said, when asked how the party intends to cobble up support.
Anand Sharma said Congress has all options open. “We have to look at the final numbers. Since Congress will be the single largest party, all non-BJP secular parties will be obliged to support us,” he said.
UPA’S ROUTES TO POWER
OPTION 1:
- Cong and its allies get close to 200 seats
- RJD, LJP and SP add about 40 seats
- The Left with 35 seats gives outside support
- UPA+ crosses majority mark
- Likelihood: Possible
OPTION 2:
- UPA gets 180 to 200 seats
- SP gets 25 seats
- Nitish Kumar & Jayalalithaa switch sides
- Smaller parties like BJD, PMK also join in
- UPA+ crosses majority mark
- Verdict: Possible
NDA’s ROUTES TO POWER
OPTION 1:
- NDA gets close to 200 seats
- Ex-NDA partners AIADMK & TDP return with about 50 seats
- Mayawati supports with about 35 MPs
- NDA crosses majority mark
- Likelihood: Possible
THIRD FRONT’S ROUTE TO POWER
OPTION 1:
- Third Front gets about 140 seats
- Gets Fourth Front support
- Gets other UPA allies to support it
- Or gets UPA to lend outside support
- Likelihood: Unlikely
A LONG-DRAWN PROCESS OF GOVT FORMATION?
Clearly, going by these numbers, India is in for a long drawn out process of government formation and all eyes will be on President Pratibha Patil. “Her call will be very difficult because all kinds of claims and counter-claims will be made. If there’s a single largest party, the President – as per tradition – must call the single-largest party. As per Bommai case, the strength has to be proved on floor. It could well be that the BJP or the Cong – as single largest – can’t muster those numbers. But I feel it’s not a three-way contest, it’s a two-way contest,” Vinod Sharma explained.
According to the survey, the UPA is predicted to bag 202 out of total 542 seats. The NDA is slated to win 193 seats. The individual party tally gives 157 seats to the Congress and 154 to the BJP.
The Left-led third front is projected to get 101 seats and set to play a key role in deciding the new dispensation at the Centre. The survey said 46 seats may go to other smaller parties.
The BSP which is expected to play a crucial role will end up with 25 seats.
The Congress-led UPA has been projected to have an edge over NDA and others in the Lok Sabhaelections which are expected to produce a highly-fractured verdict, according to the The Times Of India projection of the outcome of the 2009 Lok Sabha polls.
According to the TOI projection shown exclusively on TIMES NOW , UPA is likely to win 198 seats, the NDA 183, the Third Front 112 seats. The Congress is likely to get 154 seats, while the other UPA constituents could get around 44. In BJP, on the other hand, is likely to get 142 seats, while other parties in the NDA are likely to get 41 seats. In the Third Front, Left parties are projeced to bag 38 seats, BSP 27, AIADMK+ 24, TDP+ 20 and the JD(S) 3. The SP is pegged to get 23 seats, BJD 8, RJD+LJP 6, PRP 4, AUDG 1, SDF 1, NPF 1, HJC 1, JMM 2 and independents are projected to get about 3 seats.
That means that while Congress and BJP lose out a few seats from their 2004 performance, neither has a clear shot at forming the government 272 being the majority mark. Mayawati's BSP, which has been projected to win about 28 seats as well as the AIADMK+ with about 23 seats could well end up holding the key to the government formation.
The state-wise TOI projection is as under:
BIHAR: 40 SEATS
CONG 3 NCP 1 BJP 10 JD(U)19
LEFT 1 RJD 4 LJP 2
ASSAM: 14 SEATS
CONG 5 BPF 1 BJP 4 AGP 3
LEFT 0 AUDF 1
NORTH EAST: 10 SEATS (MEGHALAYA, MANIPUR, MIZORAM, TRIPURA, NAGALAND,SIKKIM)
CONG 4 NCP 1 BJP 0 LEFT 2
NPF 1 SF 1
MADHYA PRADESH: 29 SEATS
CONG 6 BJP 23
GUJARAT: 26 SEATS
CONG 7 BJP 19
RAJASTHAN: 25 SEATS
CONG 12 BJP 11 IND 2
ORISSA: 21 SEATS
CONG 9 BJP 4 BJD 8
PUNJAB: 13 SEATS
CONG 9 BJP 1 SAD 3
KERALA: 20 SEATS
CONG 12 IUML 2 KC(M) 1 LEFT 5
KARNATAKA: 28 SEATS
CONG 9 BJP 16 JD(S) 3
MAHARASHTRA: 48 SEATS
CONG 12 NCP 11 BJP 13 SHS 12
UTTAR PRADESH: 80 SEATS
CONG 13 BJP 14 RLD 3 BSP 28
SP 22
WEST BENGAL: 42 SEATS
CONG 5 TMC 11 BJP 1 LEFT 24
SUCI 1
TAMIL NADU: 39 SEATS
CONG 4, DMK 7, BJP 1, LEFT 4
AIADMK+23
NDTV presents India's largest exit poll covering over 71,000 voters from across the country.
Tamil Nadu, the state which everyone is watching keenly, is headed for a neck-and-neck result between the AIADMK and the DMK Front.
Narendra Modi seems set to better his past performance as BJP looks good to win decisively in Gujarat. The party will also benefit from an uneven vote distribution and is likely to win in Karnataka and in partnership with the JD(U), is set to sweep Bihar.
The Congress retains dominance in Andhra Pradesh and slips through in Orissa thanks to the split in the BJP-BJD alliance.
These are forecasts for some crucial states from an exit poll conducted by NDTV in General Elections 2009. The fieldwork was done by GfK-Mode and 71,500 people were surveyed across India.
On Wednesday, Dr Prannoy Roy and Dorab Sopariwala, along with a panel of experts, analysed the exit poll forecasts for 196 seats in six important states. They shall discuss the rest of the states over the next two days before counting of votes on Saturday, May 16.
Earlier on Wednesday, an estimated 62 per cent of the electorate exercised their franchise in the fifth and final phase of polling in Lok Sabha elections, bringing down the curtain on the month-long democratic exercise, the longest in the world.
The day saw elections to 86 constituencies across nine states and two Union Territories, including all 39 seats in Tamil Nadu.
Counting will be held on May 16.
Andhra Pradesh:
Of the 42 seats, the Congress-led UPA seems set to reaffirm its dominance and repeat its 2004 performance of grabbing a winning 29 seats. The Third Front, which includes the TDP, is projected to gain three seats taking its tally to 10, and the NDA may lose three seats down to two from five in 2004.
Bihar:
The NDA is set to sweep Bihar, winning 33 of the 40 seats. That is up a whopping 22 seats from its 2004 tally of 11. The UPA loses two of its three seats and the rest of the loss is borne by the new Lalu-Paswan Fourth Front combine which loses 21 seats to come crashing down to a mere five seats. A clear thumbs up for Nitish Kumar and his chief ministership.
Gujarat:
From East to West. Nitish Kumar and Narendra Modi did not just dramatically share stage to underscore BJP-JD(U) affection. They also share healthy wins in their respective states. In Gujarat, Narendra Modi is set to gain from his thin margin of 2004, and may add four seats to take his tally to 18. The UPA consequently would slide down four to eight.
Orissa:
The BJP-BJD split in Orissa is likely to help the Congress slip through to get just ahead of the Third Front, which includes Naveen Patnaik's Biju Janata Dal. The UPA looks likely to get 10 seats up seven from its 2004 tally, to nine for the Third Front, down two seats. The NDA loses five seats from its 2004 tally and comes down to two.
Karnataka:
The NDA looks set to do surprisingly well in Karnataka thanks to uneven vote distribution. So, even though the Congress-led UPA may have the larger vote share, the BJP-led NDA is set to win most seats, 17 out of the 28. That is down one from its previous tally. A gain for the UPA, which takes up its tally to nine from eight last year.
Tamil Nadu:
In this state, where the Tamils in Sri Lanka issue has been hot, the alliances led by the two regional giants AIADMK and the DMK are set for a photo-finish. The DMK-led UPA is likely to see a significant six-seat loss down to 20 seats. And the AIADMK may gain five to take its tally to 18.
Overall picture so far:
Six states, 196 seats: The NDA had won 55 of these seats in 2004. It looks set to add 17 to take that tally to 72. The UPA had 81 of these and is likely to lose 4 to get 77 -- still ahead. The Third Front is likely to gain six in its new avatar to grab 39 of these seats and the Fourth Front may lose a huge 20 seats, with the combined tally dwindling to just six.
Alliances:
NDA: BJP, JD(U), SS, AFP, AKALI, RLD, INLD, NPF
UPA: CONG, NCP, DMK, TC, JMM, JKNC, RPI
Third Front: LEFT, BSP, AIADMK, TDP, BJD, TRS, PMK, JDS, MDMK
Fourth Front: RJD, LJP, SP, PRP
Prominent politicians cast their votes as polling for the final phase of general elections came to a close Wednesday.
BJP candidate in Pilibhit, Varun Gandhi on Wednesday alleged that officials at a polling station here had helped the BSP candidate.